2020 flooding forecast released

In its first spring flooding forecast of 2020, the National Weather Service in Paducah, Kentucky, said the flood potential in the Mississippi and Ohio river basins will be above average for much of the region.

The report covers the time period of mid-February through mid-May and includes the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio rivers and their tributaries in the region.

"Flood potential is above average, or above normal, for much of the Ohio and Mississippi basins and their tributaries across Southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana and West Kentucky," weather service meteorologist and hydrologist Mary Lamm said in her forecast released Thursday.

Meanwhile, she said an "average or normal chance for flooding along Mississippi River tributaries" exists in Southeast Missouri.

"Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows and expected precipitation," she said.

According to the weather service report, precipitation since last fall has been above normal with amounts ranging from 125% to 150% above normal rainfall amounts for the time period.

"Periodic rounds of heavy rain have fallen since Dec. 1 producing rivers that are running above normal across the region," Lamm said in her forecast "minor to moderate flooding is currently occurring along the Ohio River and several of its tributaries."

Although snowfall this winter has been confined to extreme northern parts of the Mississippi and Ohio river basins, Lamm said "plenty" of rainfall has saturated the region, which will make it difficult for flood-prone regions to absorb regional floodwaters.

"Soil moisture is much above normal and conditions are nearly saturated across the region," her report said.

"Given all these factors, flood risk is above normal across the region," the report concluded. "Additional flooding through the spring will be dependent on how the snow melts in the upper parts of the Mississippi and Ohio basins as well as the track of spring storm systems. Elevated river levels can be expected into at least the first of the spring."

The National Weather Service will update its flood forecast in two weeks and again two weeks after that. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service office in St. Charles, Missouri, is scheduled to release its flood forecast for additional points upstream, including the Cape Girardeau area, on Feb. 20.