El Nino throwing some cold water on storm forecasts

The wind seems to be going out of this year's hurricane forecast.

Weather experts at Colorado State University, who originally predicted 13 big storms this season, are downgrading their forecast. They now think only nine named storms will come this season, perhaps four of them becoming hurricanes.

Government forecasters agree, but with slightly different numbers. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there will be seven to 10 tropical storms instead of 13. Between four and six may develop into hurricanes by the end of the season, which runs through November. There have been three tropical storms this season, none of which reached hurricane intensity.

NOAA's original forecast was reduced because of a growing El Nino condition half a world away, far out in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is a warming of surface waters at the equator that affects weather worldwide.

The researchers in Colorado think there's more to it than El Nino, however. They see other changes in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are playing a role reducing hurricane numbers this year.

"Due to the recent changes in climate signals, we now believe the 2002 Atlantic basic hurricane season will be considerably below the long-term average, and much below what has been experienced in six of the last seven years," said forecaster William Gray, who heads the team in Colorado.

Two of this year's storms -- Arthur and Bertha -- have already come and gone, and both were early-season, weak, high-latitude systems.

On average, there are 9.6 named Atlantic storms annually, including 5.9 Category 1 and 2 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes, which are defined as Categories 3 to 5. Category 1 and 2 hurricanes involve winds from 74 to 110 mph. Major hurricanes are classified by wind speed from 111 to 156 mph and up.

According to Gray, his changed forecast stems from an unusual combination of conditions, not just El Nino.