EU scrambles after charter defeat

PARIS -- The dramatic French "no" to the European Union's first constitution and indications the Netherlands will deliver the same verdict this week have European leaders scrambling to contain damage to the bloc's unification project.

The historic charter needs to be ratified by all 25 EU nations. The outcome in France was not even close: The "no" polled nearly 55 percent and the "yes" 45 percent. Turnout was 69.3 percent.

French opponents of the document insist it can be altered to suit their tastes, and history suggests they may be right: In 1992, Denmark rejected a landmark unification treaty, only to approve a revision a year later.

But EU leaders and observers agree the constitution won't be rewritten any time soon, if at all.

"There will be no rerun in the foreseeable future," said John Palmer, political director of the European Policy Center, a think tank based in Brussels, Belgium. "There is no prospect in the short term at anything that looks like a renegotiation."

Clues about whether EU leaders can eventually muster the political will for charter revisions or a complete overhaul could come at a two-day summit of EU leaders in mid-June in Brussels.

"The treaty may not be dead, but it is gravely -- possibly fatally -- wounded," Palmer said.

The rejection also was a severe blow to France's government. On Monday, President Jacques Chirac, who campaigned hard for the charter, spoke by phone with European leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin and met in Paris with his beleaguered prime minister, who was expected to be replaced. Chirac is expected to announce a shake-up of his Cabinet today.

On Monday, the EU common currency, the euro, dropped below $1.25 to its lowest level against the dollar since October.

Chirac didn't even have to call the referendum: Like most other EU nations are doing, he could have taken the treaty through France's parliament, where his center-right government has a majority.

Although the question posed was about Europe, the answer was a clear repudiation of Chirac's domestic policies. In an exit poll of 3,355 registered electors by Ipsos, 52 percent of "no" voters cited dissatisfaction with economic and social problems for their choice.

Nine countries -- Austria, Hungary, Italy, Germany, Greece, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain -- have ratified the constitution, and EU leaders vow the process will continue in other members despite France's "no."

"When faced with difficulties, it is where we expect our politicians to show determination and vision to rally together for Europe," said EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

Next up is the Netherlands, which holds a referendum Wednesday. Polls suggest the Dutch are at least as opposed as the French, and a defeat in another founding member of the EU could be a knockout punch for the treaty.

That vote is being closely watched in Britain, where "Euroskeptic" sentiment is even stronger than in France or the Netherlands. Prime Minister Tony Blair said Monday it was too early to tell if Britain would go ahead with a referendum on the constitution as planned, calling for a "time for reflection."

EU leaders, who signed the constitution in October, contend it would streamline operations and decision-making and improve democratic accountability. It also would create an EU president and foreign minister, raising Europe's profile on the global stage by giving it the ability to speak with one voice.

The constitution itself makes clear all EU members must ratify the text for it to take effect as planned by Nov. 1, 2006. But it also says EU leaders will discuss what to do if, by October 2006, four-fifths of member states have ratified the treaty but even one has "encountered difficulties" getting it accepted.

A key problem will be pinpointing exactly what Europeans do not like about the charter, and what minimal changes they would be willing to live with.