Future uncertain for local, state farmers

NEELYVILLE — Zach Talbott’s family started farming their land in Neelyville in one capacity or another during the late 1800s, with his father being the first to do it full time in the late 1980s. Since 2021, Talbott has also been farming full time and he’s unsure about the future.

“I don’t want to sound all doom and gloom. I really don’t,” Talbott said. “But things aren’t looking good right now, and they don’t look good for the future, either.”

Among his concerns is the closure of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) program — which has been a major purchaser of agricultural commodities, including wheat, cornmeal, rice, edible beans and dairy products from U.S. farms and Missouri farmers. Talbott primarily farms rice. The USAID program was effectively closed down the last week of January by newly-elected President Donald Trump and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) executive Elon Musk.

“I know there are a lot of rice growers who sell their crops, which end up going to USAID,” Talbott noted. “I don’t know how we could know exactly how much that would be per farmer, but there will likely be a loss to our local farmers because of this.”

According to Kerry Clark, a researcher with the University of Missouri, the USAID program has both direct and indirect benefits for Missouri farmers.

“The direct benefit would obviously be that the crops are being bought,” Clark said. “But indirectly, the research that comes from the program has benefits that can help domestic farmers have higher yields and better production.”

USAID was established during the Cold War by President John F. Kennedy and was approved by Congress to help by providing food and disaster assistance around the world, while also projecting American soft power by helping developing countries in need.

The University of Missouri has participated in the Soybean Innovation Lab, which has functioned under USAID money since 2013, according to Clark, who leads the lab’s mechanization division. Clark said the university’s portion of the research received $1.2 million, or about $150,000 annually, before funding was discontinued. Clark said those innovations have helped local farmers. According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates, the soybean yield for Missouri counties was 5.52 million acres. In 2023, the soybean yield in Butler County was 23.8 bushels per acre.

According to Clark, research on African soybean diseases has revealed potential preventative measures for a disease that poses a significant threat to soybean crops, benefiting Missouri farmers and others.

This research, which identified preventable diseases in African soybeans, is particularly relevant given that soybeans are Missouri’s most valuable and widely planted crop, covering more than 5 million acres annually, according to the Missouri Soybean Center. This work supports the goals of the Global Food Security Act of 2016, which mandates the development and implementation of a Global Food Security Strategy to bolster global food security, resilience and nutrition.

“Basically, everything with (USAID) is interconnected,” Clark noted. “For example: The work in Africa has enabled us to learn so much more about controlling soybean rust because it’s such a regular problem there. It happens less regularly here. But now we know more about it and can control it better because of that research. That helps our domestic farmers.”

What’s next

Talbott checked some numbers and said the price for rice has already had a noticeable drop since January.

“In January, I could sell a bushel of rice for $6.55, and now the price is $6.21 per-bushel,” Talbott said. “That’s significant enough to make a difference — especially if you have a larger crop to sell.”

When asked whether there could be financial relief in sight from the U.S. government, Talbott was less than optimistic.

“The farm bill is so outdated the way that it’s currently written, the numbers don’t really apply to the current situations,” Talbott said. “That’s why so many farmers are anxious to see a new farm bill. I believe the farm bill is supposed to exist as a safety net, and not a means of income. But so many farmers are over-leveraged that they count on that money.”

Talbott said he remembers the fallout from the trade war between the U.S. and China in 2019. During that trade war, China refused to purchase soybeans from the U.S., which led to domestic farmers hurting financially and needing a government bailout.

“The cost of production has sky-rocketed since the last farm bill,” Talbott explained. The last farm bill passed was in 2018. “The margins have gotten even tighter, and now we’re anticipating getting less money for our rice crops. And a 25% steel tariff isn’t going to help me, either. That’s just going to make the cost of new equipment go up — which will, in turn, make the cost of used equipment go up. Repair costs will also go up.”

Clark said this will have a big impact on trade in general.

“If you just go to Walmart and look around, you’ll see that almost everything you buy comes from another country,” Clark said. “I understand those who have an isolationist mentality; but, if anyone wants to be successful, they need to actively participate in the global economy. USAID helps keep those channels open.”

Though he has little reason to currently feel optimistic, Talbott said he believes the highs and lows with agriculture seem to follow a cycle.

“It seems like farmers are on a five-year cycle where things go well for a while and then things get tough,” Talbott said. “Hopefully this down part won’t last long and we can move on to better days soon.”