A presidential campaign dismissed by many pundits as being finished a month ago may just be a horse race after all. For months, Americans have been treated to polls that had President Bill Clinton ahead by 20 points or more. Central to each of these head-to-head matchups is the question: "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?" But of course, the election isn't being held in April -- or May or June or July or even now. It will be Nov. 5 following a vigorous fall campaign.

About the most that can be said at this juncture is that Bob Dole has succeeded in framing a set of issues that have turned a potential blowout into a competitive election. It is instructive to review how this was accomplished. First, on the Monday before the convention, came Dole's announcement of a bold tax-cutting agenda. Included in it are a 15 percent, across-the-board cut in marginal rates, a $500-per-child tax credit, expanded IRAs and a halving of the capital gains tax. Immediately, Democrats and their acolytes in the mainstream media attacked and, in voices dripping with scorn, warned of "a return to the failed policies of the 1980s."

Dole should be glad the issue is couched in this manner. Americans listened to this debate during the 1980s and came down unambiguously on the side of tax cuts.

Next, if any doubt existed as to Dole's commitment to tax cutting, came his designation of a running mate. For 20 years, Jack Kemp has been America's most energetic and unflagging advocate of cutting marginal tax rates to unshackle American job creation and grow the economy. Dole's choice of Kemp was intended to, and did, underscore his seriousness in proposing tax cuts. Voters will watch this fall to see whether Dole really means it and can be counted on to resist the media and Democratic assault. The early indications of Dole's commitment on the tax issue are good.

Then came the convention itself. Retired Gen. Colin Powell wowed every listener with a speech that began, "My fellow Republicans," and proceeded to make a strong case for a party large enough to tolerate diverse views and yet committed to smaller government and a more vibrant private sector. Elizabeth Dole stunned every viewer as she waded into the crowd with a microphone and spoke movingly of her regard for the man she loves. It was a remarkable performance of the sort local supporters were treated to during her visit here back in June. Rep. J.C. Watts, a freshman Oklahoma congressman, gave one of the convention's most riveting speeches, focusing on values and talking directly to young people about the importance of the choices they make. Shame on the three major networks for not carrying the Watts speech. Thank God for C-SPAN, CNN and PBS, which did carry it.

Candidate Dole isn't among the gifted orators of our time. Rather, his acceptance speech featured a self-styled form of plain speaking that may just yet carry the day. Dole's remarks were full of a forthrightness that may play just fine when stacked up against the please-everyone glibness of President Clinton. Interestingly, immediate reports tracked independent and Democrat swing voters' reacting best to Dole's strong support for tax cuts and for school choice.

What those voters will be watching for is to see whether the Dole-Kemp ticket fights all fall for the bold agenda they outlined in San Diego. Any signs of uncertainty will likely prove fatal. If they don't falter, it should be a competitive race decided in a few key, midwestern states such as Missouri, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio. Win or lose though, voters seem assured of a great campaign an debate worthy of a presidential contest.