CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM OVER DROP IN HIGHWAY DEATHS

State officials, both in the highway patrol and in the transportation department, are cautiously optimistic about statistics for the first four months of 1997 that show a drop in the number of traffic fatalities in Missouri. This drop is on the heels of the increases during 1996 in highway speed limits, which some experts feared would produce a higher number of fatalities.

Statistics can be slippery. While it is true there are few traffic deaths overall in the state so far this year, some counties such as Perry and Bolinger show an increase. Statewide, this year's number -- 346 -- is 55 fewer than the same period the year before. This represents a 16 percent drop, which is good news to officials.

However, the strongest case against faster speed limits -- and the reason some states have opted for lower speed limits -- is the axiom that speed kills. And statisticians understand that it takes just one or two accidents in which there are six or seven fatalities, like the one in St. Louis earlier this year, to quickly skew the numbers. In addition, there are eight more months of statistics to be compiled this year, including the heavy-travel summer months of vacations and weekend getaways.

Still, it is good to see the drop in traffic fatalities. A spokesman for the Missouri Highway Patrol suggests several possible reasons: increased use of seat belts, more cautious driving and more awareness of the dangers of drinking and driving. All of these are key points. As more motorists think about such safety factors, the result is likely to be improved driving records.

But an official with the transportation department may be closer to the real reason that increased speed limits haven't produced more fatalities. Dave Snider, assistant chief engineer for MoDOT, correctly observes that the official increase in Missouri's speed limits lagged far behind the fact that most motorists already were driving well above the older -- and slower -- limits. Except for some interstates, most highways in the state had a blanket 55 mph limit until last year. The new limits vary but go as high as 70 mph on some sections of interstate.

One statistic to keep in mind comes from years of recordkeeping by the highway patrol: The chances of death or serious injury doubles for every 10 mph over 50 mph. Motorists who think about this and the safety their passengers are likely to be more cautious and more prudent when they are behind the wheel.