Thiessen: Trump just dealt Russia a devastating blow

The minerals deal negotiated between the United States and Ukraine is a devastating development for Russia. Indeed, it is in some ways more important than any peace deal President Donald Trump might negotiate to end the fighting. Once implemented, it will mean that Russia has effectively lost the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to conquer his neighbor. Instead, the United States has just gone into business with Ukraine – entering into, as the agreement puts it, “a durable partnership” with Kyiv to jointly develop Ukraine’s untapped minerals and other natural resources and pledging “a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine.”

With this deal, the United States is now invested – literally, not figuratively – in what the deal calls “a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine.” That means the United States now has a massive financial incentive to help safeguard Ukraine’s independence. If Ukraine survives, the United States will stand to gain hundreds of billions of dollars; if Ukraine falls, we get nothing. After all, does anyone think that if Putin conquers Ukraine, he is going to repay the United States for the weapons we gave Ukraine to fight his troops? Of course not.

The deal creates “a Reconstruction Investment Fund” that will be jointly owned and managed by the two countries. Ukraine will contribute 50 percent of all revenue earned from the “future monetization” of all government-owned natural resource assets, including “minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials.” The fund will use this revenue to “invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase the development” of its natural resources, as well as “infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises.”

Those who say Ukraine failed to win security guarantees in exchange for the minerals deal are missing the point: The minerals deal is a security guarantee. Trump has made clear that he is not going to send American troops to Ukraine. But with this deal, he is going to send something better: American workers, bulldozers and earthmovers.

“It’s a great deal for Ukraine, too, because they get us over there,” Trump explained during his Cabinet meeting Wednesday. “We’re going to be working over there. We’ll be on the land. And you know, that way it’s this sort of automatic security, because nobody’s going to be messing around with our people when we’re there.”

With the minerals deal done, Trump must now negotiate a peace deal that secures his investment by making sure the war ends - and never resumes. Ukraine’s minerals only have value to America if they are extracted from Ukrainian soil, processed and sold. If Ukraine does not have security, that won’t happen. U.S. businesses won’t be able to mine for minerals under fire from Russian forces and will not make long-term investment in Ukraine if they fear the fighting will resume. And if they don’t invest, American taxpayers won’t get paid.

Trump certainly knows that as soon as there is a peace agreement, China, Iran and North Korea will help Russia rearm - and that in time, Russia will reconstitute its forces and rebuild its defense-industrial base in preparation for a new offensive.

To stop that from happening, the United States needs to help Ukraine establish deterrence. And that will require allowing Ukraine to purchase the American weapons it needs to discourage Russia from ever restarting the conflict. The minerals deal creates a mechanism to repay the United States for the weapons we have given Ukraine over the past three years, but not for Ukraine to buy weapons in the future to defend our joint investments.

Jack Keane, a retired Army general, and I laid out a plan in these pages on transitioning Ukraine from an aid recipient to a defense consumer, and using frozen Russian assets and loans guaranteed by Ukraine’s natural resources to buy weapons. This will be critical if we want to ensure that the war never starts up again, and Ukraine’s resources can be developed for the benefit of both countries. This does not require a new agreement or action by Congress; the mechanisms for such sales exist under existing law.

But this deal is a critical step forward. Russia wanted to diminish Ukraine economically, politically and militarily. With this deal, Trump has enhanced Ukraine economically and politically. Now, to secure our new investments, the United States must enhance Ukraine militarily as well.