WASHINGTON WATCH: MEDICARE BEDEVILS THE REPUBLICANS

If the first 100 days were a smashing success for congressional Republicans, the next 100 days might only be smashing -- as in smashing their heads against an unyielding wall. That's because they have pledged to balance the budget by 2002, a task made more difficult by a president who relishes the idea of hammering each budget reduction as the price for a "Republican tax cut for the rich."

In a way, the Republicans set themselves up for this attack. While the tax cut House Republicans passed at the end of the first 100 days benefits middle-class Americans the most, it nevertheless makes balancing the budget more difficult. And this balancing act can only be achieved by reducing the growth of some programs that directly affect the middle class.

At the top of the list is Medicare, whose steep increases during the past decade have been the engine behind much of the country's growing debt. No one in Washington disputes that Medicare growth must be checked, and President Clinton championed the idea as recently as last year. But polls indicate that a majority of Americans are queasy about the idea of cutting Medicare. With Republicans now taking the lead on this issue, Clinton hopes to turn public queasiness into anger against a "mean-spirited" GOP.

Republicans, meanwhile, point to the dire financial problems of the Medicare system. Last week they highlighted the report by the program's non-partisan trustees, which warned of potential economic calamity. If Medicare isn't overhauled soon, reported the trustees, the system will go broke by 2002. This would not only be disastrous for Medicare recipients, it would be disastrous for the economy as a whole.

Unfortunately, Republican intentions to address Medicare's problems run up against two stark political realities. One, voters are concerned that Republicans will be overzealous in their cuts. Two, Clinton plans to denounce the Republicans every step of the way.

By making tax cuts a priority, Republicans have made themselves vulnerable to the first charge. As for the second, well, the president is placing his political ambition over the good of the country, but then, what else is new?

What the country needs is a bipartisan approach to addressing Medicare and balancing the budget. Or, at least, a more responsible debate about both issues. Senate Republicans could get the ball rolling by making the same promise about tax cuts as House members: No tax cuts will go into effect that aren't contained in a budget that moves toward balance by 2002.

For his part, the president could stop the political demonization and contemplate real leadership, even offer his own ideas about how to reform Medicare and balance the budget.

Presidential fortunes

The White House doesn't want to hype it too much, but the president's popularity has been on the rise since the Oklahoma City bombing. With Congress out of session, the tragedy allowed Clinton to grab the spotlight and speak to the nation as only a president can.

Only days after he was denied air time on two of the major networks for a prime-time press conference, Clinton was receiving all the TV exposure he could have wanted. Moreover, the setting was "presidential." No nagging reporters' questions about his political relevance. No questions about his decision to skip V-E Day ceremonies in Britain in favor of Russia. No questions about Whitewater.

In the weeks since, the president has also regained his voice on a number of issues important to the modern Democratic voter. Before farmers in Iowa, he pledged his support for farm subsidies and ethanol. Before Jewish groups in New York, he condemned Iran. In front of a women's group in Washington, he pledged his support for abortion rights.

Hope in the White House is that if Clinton can assuage the core Democratic voter, he might be able to avoid a primary challenge. Then, if Colin Powell or Ross Perot enters the 1996 presidential race as a third-party candidate, he might just be able to slip to re-election with 43 percent of the vote.

This would be a truly uplifting two weeks for the White House if Clinton could avoid any faux pas in Moscow, while also convincing the Russian government to give up plans to sell nuclear technology to Iran. There's still a long way to go before 1996, but for the first time in a long while, the president's staff has hope for a political future.

Jon K. Rust is a columnist for the Southeast Missourian.