Sticky regional politics keep Iraq's northern front cautious

DIBAGAH RIDGE, Iraq -- On a scrap of paper, a Kurdish commander drew a line representing the northern front. Isolated slash marks showed the main points of attack against Iraqi forces.

Then Majid Harki wrote a single word that he repeats often to his front line fighters: "suber" -- patience.

"We pick the time and place to strike," Harki said Monday after helping U.S. Special Forces pinpoint Iraqi gunners near a strategic crossroads 55 miles southwest of Mosul. "We want to be a sharp blade, not a bulldozer."

This has become the battlefield doctrine in the north.

From Kuwait, coalition forces in southern Iraq have pushed relentlessly for territory from the first moments of the war. But in the Kurdish north, it was several days before U.S. soldiers even publicly announced their presence.

The reason for difference is something stronger than U.S. firepower: sticky regional politics.

The Pentagon originally planned to send up to 60,000 ground troops into the Kurdish zone from Turkey to squeeze Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from two directions. But anti-war sentiments in Turkey swayed its parliament to reject Washington's proposal.

With the air the only option, about 1,200 paratroopers dropped into northern Iraq on March 27 to join the special forces already in the region. More troops have arrived, but their strength is too limited to launch serious ground assaults against the heavily defended cities of Mosul and Kirkuk.

The estimated 70,000 Kurdish fighters insist they are ready any time. But Turkish leaders object to any Kurdish move on Kirkuk, Iraq's No. 2 oil region. Turkey worries that stronger and richer Iraqi Kurds could stoke aspirations for independence among Kurdish groups elsewhere -- especially Kurds in Turkey.

An ethnic Turkish minority in Kirkuk also looks to Turkey as its historical protector.

'War within a war'

Turkey had threatened to send troops into northern Iraq to guard its interests. Kurds warned they could fight back. A diplomatic blitz led by Washington averted what some commentators called a brewing "war within a war."

The northern front plans, meanwhile, have been left hobbled.

Airstrikes first concentrated on fortifications around Mosul and Kirkuk. In the past week, they have shifted to front-line Iraqi units, which are often conscripts whose only defense is retreat.

At many key points, Iraqi forces have withdrawn toward Mosul and Kirkuk. Kurdish fighters have advanced with hardly a shot, but generally stop before attacking the new Iraqi positions.

This keeps Washington's promise to Turkey to contain any Kurdish rush south.

"You must understand this is all America's war," said a Kurdish commander, Farhad Yunus Ahmed. "Our leaders have decided to do it America's way. This means we cannot decide anything on our own."

The Pentagon's control was on clear display last week during a battle for an important bridge on a main road to Mosul.

U.S. Special Forces directed airstrikes from F-14 Tomcats and B-52 bombers. Kurds moved forward to claim the bridge at Khazer as Iraqis fled. Hours later, however, U.S. commanders ordered the Kurds to pull back over the bridge. Airstrike spotters wanted to use the river as a dividing line for attacks to avoid friendly fire casualties. On Monday, the bridge remained in no man's land.

With coalition forces in Baghdad, the sluggish northern front has shown signs of becoming more aggressive.

Coalition aircraft hit an ammunition dump in Mosul on Monday, Kurdish officials said.

On Sunday, U.S. troops fought alongside Kurdish militiamen to push Iraqi forces out of Ain Sifni, 25 miles north of Mosul.

At another point along the northern front near Dibagah, a U.S. warplane mistakenly bombed a convoy of U.S. and Kurdish forces during what Kurds called "serious fighting." The friendly fire killed at least 17 Kurdish fighters and a translator for the British Broadcasting Corp.

"There is more tension as this front becomes more active in order to put more pressure on the Iraqi side," said Hoshyar Zebari, a senior member of Kurdish leadership.

Zebari has suggested U.S.-Kurdish special operations are in progress "behind enemy lines," but he declined to offer details. "Not everything on this front is visible," he said.

The apparent hope is that Iraqi resistance in the north will crumble with Saddam's regime. But not everyone is predicting a bloodless finale.

Kurdish intelligence sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Iraqi forces have withdrawn tanks and heavy armor into residential areas of Mosul and Kirkuk and have barred civilians from fleeing. The information could not be independently confirmed.

Kirkuk is a particular worry. Iraqis have not set fire to the oil wells -- a scenario predicted before the war. But Ares Abdullah, a Kurdish commander 12 miles from Kirkuk, said the wells might be rigged with explosives and mines.

"We hope the cities will fall from Saddam's grasp without a fight," he said. "Do I believe this will happen? Unfortunately, no."