North Korean nuclear claim puts U.S. in sensitive position

WASHINGTON -- North Korea seems today to have crept closer to a crisis by claiming it has, and might test, a more potent nuclear arsenal than the Americans thought it had.

Even if the country's declaration were nothing more than bluster, it presents a dilemma for the Bush administration. And it shows that, the success in Iraq notwithstanding, the United States is unlikely to resort to drastic measures to take out the nuclear bombs.

"You could have a precision strike. You could invade. You could have a NATO blockade," said Lee Hamilton, a former chairman of the House International Relations Committee and now director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

"But all these things risk some chaos in the area -- starvation of civilians, heavy casualties on both sides. It would not be Afghanistan, and it would not be Iraq."

Talks broke down in Beijing last week over North Korea's nuclear assertions. President Bush said North Korean President Kim Jong Il was simply playing "the old blackmail game."

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer explained the disparate treatment given North Korea and Iraq, where Bush sent close to 200,000 troops to bring down President Saddam Hussein's government.

"Because you deal with a threat through military action in one region of the world does not automatically mean you must deal with it the same way in a different part of the world," Fleischer said last week.

In other words, said Cato Institute scholar Doug Bandow, you do not idly rattle sabers at a foe that can fire missiles at thousands of American soldiers on the demarcation line between North and South Korea and devastate its neighbor and your ally, South Korea, in the process.

"Even if the North Koreans didn't launch their military in terms of an armed invasion, they could use artillery and Scuds to hit Seoul," the South Korean capital, Bandow said.

"It would risk a retaliatory spiral that could lead to full-scale war. This possibility requires the United States to look at the Korean peninsula very differently than it looked at Iraq," he said.

So rather than move down the road to war, the administration has pulled back to consult with allies about penalties against North Korea. It is a move that North Korea once considered tantamount to declaring war but may now entertain for the sake of its survival, said Don Oberdorfer, an East Asia specialist at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

"There are some in North Korea who believe that the only way to survive in this situation is to have the strongest possible military machine, including the production of nuclear weapons," Oberdorfer said.

"Others, who do not seem dominant right now, believe negotiation or diplomacy with the United States and others could give them confidence that the United States will not threaten them or attack them."

One factor is Iraq.

North Korea looked at Saddam's fall and saw that offering talks with the United States could buy more time for the North's nuclear pursuits.

'Slow the process down'

"The North is brilliant at mixing conciliation and provocation. If you worry about the United States potentially attacking you, you say, 'Well, we're willing to talk.' You slow the process down. You stall," Bandow said.

"The North Koreans have far more at stake. We worry about them shooting at us, but they know they'd be wiped from the face of the Earth. They're embattled, they're isolated, they're impoverished, they're starving. They are dealing with their survival."

The administration has not decided what to do about its broken discussion with North Korea. It seems content to leave it on the short list of countries that are candidates for Bush's policy of striking first against potential enemies.

Despite that, Hamilton said, the makings of a deal are there.

North Korea would assure, and independent inspectors would verify, that it has stopped making nuclear weapons and is not shipping nuclear materials to unfriendly states or terror groups. In exchange, the United States would promise security and aid.

"Getting there is very tough," Hamilton said. "It will take a long time, difficult negotiations and more threats before we get there."