FBI-CIA 'matrix' tracks terror threats

WASHINGTON -- The decision to put the country on high alert for a terrorist attack was based largely on a top-secret daily report produced by the FBI and CIA that details every sign of a threat, from intercepted e-mails to satellite photos to clandestine whispers of spies.

Running up to 30 pages, this threat "matrix" has become part of President Bush's morning routine in the fight against terror.

Each day Bush is at the White House, Attorney General John Ashcroft, FBI director Robert Mueller and CIA director George Tenet brief the president in the Oval Office about threats facing the United States at home and abroad.

The crux of their briefings is the document formally titled "Terrorist Threats to U.S. Interests Worldwide," or more informally, the "daily threat matrix."

The high level of threat "chatter" collected worldwide and detailed in the matrix was a key to the Bush administration's decision Tuesday to raise the terror threat level from elevated (yellow) to high (orange). The other main consideration was recent deadly bombings in Saudi Arabia and Morocco that officials say point to a resurgence of activity by the al-Qaida network.

Officials say they expect the alert level to remain high at least through the Memorial Day weekend.

In recent congressional testimony, Mueller said the matrix is produced "to ensure we are working off a common knowledge base" as officials assess threats from al-Qaida and other groups as well as individual "lone wolf" extremists and violent homegrown radicals.

No threat ignored

The document is "a list of every threat directed at the United States in the past 24 hours," Mueller said.

Government officials familiar with the matrix, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described it as a daily compendium of a few pages to 30 or more. Each threat is entered in tabular format, with those considered the most severe listed first.

No threat is ignored, and even known hoaxes are reported, officials say. "We put everything in there," one federal law enforcement official said.

Officials stressed the matrix provides a cumulative snapshot that, taken together, give officials a broad picture of the overall ebb and flow of threats.

Each entry includes the type of source, such as a human informant, intercepted signal or computer e-mail. Precise details are withheld to protect the intelligence source and method, and even these general entries are given in a classified code for an additional layer of security.

Also included are possible targets and which terrorist group might be plotting an attack, if that is known, and some notes about a threat's level of credibility or corroboration. The matrix also describes possible methods of attack and, perhaps most important, lists what government action has been taken to avert it.

FBI joins CIA to avert terror

For the FBI, this action could mean obtaining an emergency warrant -- Ashcroft sometimes is awakened in the middle of the night for his signature -- to set up secret surveillance and tap telephones of suspected terrorists in the United States.

The Homeland Security Department might notify sensitive industrial sites about threats to their installations. The CIA could step up efforts to penetrate foreign groups that might be plotting.

Before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the CIA was responsible for providing the White House and other government agencies with terrorist threat assessments, working with such intelligence entities as the eavesdropping National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency and others.

Since the attacks, the FBI has reinforced its domestic intelligence-gathering capabilities, working more closely with the CIA than ever in the past.

The daily matrix now is produced by the two agencies' counterterror units together at the new Terrorist Threat Integration Center, now at CIA headquarters in Virginia but soon to get its own home.

Associated Press writer John J. Lumpkin contributed to this report.

WHAT'S IN THE 'MATRIX'

Elements of the CIA-FBI "daily threat matrix" used to determine the likelihood of a terrorist attack against U.S. interests:

Type of intelligence source, such as human informant, phone interception, satellite imagery.

Possible target or targets.

Identity of group planning attack, if known.

Method of potential attack, such as car bomb, suicide bomber.

Analysis and commentary about threat's credibility and context.

Notes about actions taken, such as who was notified and what has been done.