Democrats, GOP agree -- Iraq likely headed for civil war

WASHINGTON -- Republicans and Democrats have found something about Iraq to agree on -- the country is probably headed into civil war.

An AP-Ipsos Poll found an overwhelming majority of Americans -- including 70 percent of Republicans and 90 percent of Democrats -- saying it's likely that a civil war will break out in Iraq.

"I can see why we went in there, but I look at it as a hopeless cause," said Mary Jo McCarthy of Medina, Ohio, who leans Republican. "The president is committed to doing what is right and those people want to have a democracy, but there are so many radicals over there."

The poll found that almost four of every five Americans think it's likely that Iraq is heading toward civil war.

Violence in Iraq has escalated since the destruction of a 1,200-year-old shrine in Samarra in late February. That terror attack sparked hundreds of killings in the next week, followed by deadly explosions, kidnappings and executions in recent days. Iraqi leaders are still struggling to form a government.

Bush's job approval has dipped back to 37 percent, his lowest rating in the AP poll, at a time of high anxiety about Iraq, doubts about Katrina recovery and a controversial debate about port security.

Fewer Americans consider Bush likable, honest, strong and dependable than they did just after he won re-election.

The poll also found that Democrats have an 11-point edge over Republicans when people are asked who they want to win control of Congress.

Bush is beginning a series of speeches on Monday to convince Americans that the United States is on the right path to defeat terrorists and insurgents in Iraq three years after U.S. troops invaded in March 2003.

In a midterm election year, nervous GOP leaders are rushing to distance themselves from Bush on a range of issues, including port security, immigration, spending, warrantless eavesdropping and trade.

Democrats and Republicans differ sharply in their views of the president, the economy and even the direction of the country -- but they are unified in their fears about Iraq's future.

In fact, those concerns about a civil war in Iraq are spread across most groups in the population -- men and women, people of all ages, whites and minorities, rich and poor, according to the telephone poll of 1,000 adults.

The survey was conducted Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Iraq questions, asked of half the sample, have a 5 percentage point margin of error.

Despite the high anxiety about Iraq, views about the country's longterm prospects have not changed much over the last year.

People are evenly divided on the prospects for a stable, democratic government in Iraq, with the number expecting a stable outcome about the same as a year ago, the poll found.

As the political situation in Iraq threatens to disintegrate, the toll of deaths and casualties for U.S. troops continues to mount. More than 2,300 U.S. troops have died in the Iraq war and about 17,000 have been wounded.

What will happen to those wounded troops is a big concern of Connecticut retiree Margaret Campanelli, who tends to vote Republican and is very worried about the nation's direction.

"You don't hear as much about the very many who come back who are seriously wounded and permanently scarred," said Campanelli. "Our attitude should be: 'Anything you need, you've got it, buddy."'

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AP Political Writer Ron Fournier and AP Manager of News Surveys Trevor Tompson contributed to this story.

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Ipsos: http://www.ap-ipsosresults.com