In politics few things are guaranteed.But one thing is certain this political year. In Scott County, there won't be one Republican elected to county office.

In fact, there won't even be a Republican pursuing county office. Out of a field of 11 candidates for Scott County's political offices this year, none are Republican.

Scott County's government has never been friendly ground for Republican politicians. The last Republican to hold office there was Ralph Boyer, who was appointed to the county commission, not elected, in 1989.

When he ran for election in 1990, he was defeated by a Democrat.

"It's not even an incumbent thing," said Perry Waltrip, chairman of the Republican party committee in Scott County. "We really haven't figured it out.

"In the last election two years ago, we had Republicans running for every office. We'd like to run someone again, if we can find someone who's willing to try. Most of them said 'I'll never try that again.'"

Cross the border into Cape Girardeau County and the picture is markedly different. There Republicans have enjoyed great success, with a majority of county office holders and a strong lock on seats in the state legislature.

Throughout the 1970s, Cape Girardeau County's state legislators came from both parties, as did its county officeholders. That held true through the 1980s as well, even though many will cite the election of Bill Emerson as the beginning of Republican dominance in the area.

But Scott County's politics were dominated by Democrats for years. The people elected Democrats to serve at the county level and to represent them at the state level.

But in the last few years Scott County's political personality has developed something of an identity crisis, while Cape Girardeau County's has become more and more solidly Republican.

For some Scott County Republicans, the situation is as frustrating as it is for Cape Girardeau County Democrats.

Cape Girardeau County Clerk Rodney Miller remembers the political make-up when he was elected 28 years ago -- a fairly even split between the two major parties. Over those 28 years he's fended off some challenges and maintained his office.

Miller isn't seeking reelection this year, and no Democrats are running for his seat.

But if he were to run for the first time today, he thinks he'd have a much harder battle to win his office.

Cape Girardeau County Presiding Commissioner Gerald Jones is Republican, but he agrees with his co-worker Miller.

"Cape county used to be strongly Democratic," said Miller. "Now there's more of a majority of people in the county that are Republican. If there's a vacancy for county office, no Democrats will file. I've asked my Democrat friends why there's nobody filing, and they think their chances at winning would be less than average."

Republicans rule Cape Girardeau County with an iron thumb, but in nearby Scott County, Democrats hold the reins.

Miller said he's never voted a straight-party ticket in his entire life. But in the 2004 November general election, thousands of his constituents did: 7,363 chose a Republican ticket, while only 4,328 chose all Democrats.

Scott County's numbers are more even. In 2004 3,905 went straight Republican while 3,712 went straight Democrat. But with a county government totally devoid of Republicans and a state legislative delegation totally devoid of Democrats, it's a safe bet that split tickets are the norm in Scott County.

Mary Myers, wife of Republican state legislator Peter Myers Sr., remembers her husband's first bid for the 160th district in 1998 and the lack of support from her husband's supposed friends simply because of his party affiliation.

"I think there are a lot of people that are afraid to say they're Republican even though they are," Myers said. "They told him, 'We would vote for you if you ran on the Democratic ticket.' He said 'That's not what I am. I'm a Republican.'"

In the end Myers didn't need the help. He won a tight race by 92 votes, ending decades of Democratic dominance in Scott County's state representative seats along with Lanie Black III in the 161st district.

Since then Myers and Black have been entrenched in those positions.

But East Prairie Democrat Steve Hodges thinks Scott County can go back to its roots. Hodges is running for Black's seat, which is being vacated by term limits. He'll face New Madrid Republican Gary Branum, who lives just down the road from his Democrat opponent.

"If you look back, prior to Lanie Black this has been a Democratic thing," Hodges said of the seat he seeks. "Lanie has been the exception, and I think that's why I'm getting a terrific reception."

The battle may be harder for Matt Hill, a Democrat challenging Republican Nathan Cooper for the 158th district seat in the state house. The seat has been held by a Republican since Marvin Proffer, who held it for 26 years, retired in 1988.

No Democrat even challenged Cooper's bid for the seat in 2004.

"Cape Girardeau is not through and through Republican," Hill said. "People here take the time to learn about individuals, they take the time to get to know the candidates.

"If you take a look at the numbers in the past state representative races, it's not that big of a difference. I think that the citizens certainly judge candidates based on the person."

Of course, races for county and state offices are vastly different, with different issues affecting each.

Dr. Rick Althaus, a professor of political science at Southeast Missouri State University and treasurer of the Cape Girardeau Democratic party committee, said the differences in a state representative's job and a county official's job could explain anomalies like Scott County.

"I think the difference is those county offices are not seen so much as policy positions," Althaus said. "How will a Democrat assess property or collect taxes differently than a Republican? You can't say that about state legislative seats. Those are policy making positions."

Some county officials would rather see the party affiliation done away with altogether on their level. They use Althaus' point as a justification, as well as saving money by having fewer elections.

"There are no political philosophies in county offices," Ziegenhorn said. "The sheriff is not voting on whether or not we have a lottery or legalize abortion.

"We are very conservative Democrats in Southeast Missouri, and I don't know why you have to be one or the other. But it seems that no one wants a Republican to come in."

For this political season, those people will get their wish. No Republican will come into office in Scott County. But if one did, Ziegenhorn hopes it wouldn't make much difference in conducting county business.

"There doesn't need to be a fight between Democrats and Republicans on the commission," he said. "There may be a fight between the north and south money-wise, but we need to be all elected as Scott countians on that commission, and be the best for Scott County."

msanders@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 182