Sharon says he'll fight to keep job, but corruption scandal may

JERUSALEM -- Ariel Sharon's premiership appears to be in serious jeopardy for the first time in three years on the job.

Corruption allegations against Sharon had been percolating for years, but last week's indictment of real estate mogul David Appel for allegedly bribing the prime minister with $690,000 has set off a political storm.

If Sharon is indicted on bribe-taking, he would likely be forced to resign. Prosecutors say the decision on an indictment could take weeks or months and will depend on whether there is overwhelming evidence that Sharon took money with criminal intent.

On Friday, Channel 2 TV reported that police would question Sharon about the bribery allegations in about two weeks. Quoting unidentified Sharon advisers, it also said the prime minister would resign if indicted.

All this may have little effect on Mideast peacemaking, since the U.S.-backed "road map" plan has been stalled for months with no signs of a breakthrough.

However, some say Sharon might speed up unilateral steps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In recent weeks, the prime minister has raised the possibility of imposing a boundary on the Palestinians and dismantling a few Israeli settlements if there is no end to the stalemate with the Palestinians in six months.

Analyst Yossi Alpher said a dramatic move could help Sharon detract attention from the corruption cases. "This would give him a lot of popularity and strengthen his position," Alpher said.

Sharon's likely successor would be Benjamin Netanyahu, himself a former prime mini- ster. Netanyahu is a staunch opponent of Palestinian statehood, whereas Sharon has said a Palestinian state is inevitable -- though he wants to give up much less land for it than the Palestinians demand.

Even if there is no indictment, Appel's trial, with American celebrity attorney Alan Dershowitz assisting the defense team, is expected to keep the suspicions against Sharon on the front pages.

Sharon was forced out of office once before, as defense minister in 1983, after being held indirectly responsible for the massacre of hundreds of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon by Israeli-allied militiamen.

From that low point, Sharon clawed his way back to the Cabinet and political respectability, though until just a few years ago, few Israelis could imagine the divisive politician ever becoming prime minister.

That changed after the outbreak of Israeli-Palestinian fighting in 2000, when Israelis suddenly needed a tough leader. Sharon was elected in early 2001, and re-elected two years later, both times by a landslide.

Some of Sharon's troubles appear connected to the 1999 Likud leadership primary. Police are investigating whether he obtained an illegal loan during the race, possibly in exchange for financial favors.

Sharon's resignation as prime minister and Likud leader wouldn't mean elections. A legislator, probably from Likud, the largest party in Parliament, would be given a week to form a new government and take over as prime minister.

Top contenders for Likud leader -- and the premiership -- would be Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and Vice Premier Ehud Olmert, with the decision left up to the party's 3,000-member central committee.

In the central committee, Netanyahu has a slight edge over Shalom, while Olmert -- also named as a recipient of bribes in the Appel affair -- is a distant third, said political commentator Hanan Crystal.

In first signs of wrangling for power in a post-Sharon era, two Likud lawmakers close to Netanyahu said this week they plan legislation to lengthen the succession timetable. This would allow Likud to organize primaries, in which Netanyahu would be the front-runner.

Sharon's approval rating sank to 33 percent after the Appel indictment, from 41 percent last month, according to a poll with an error margin of 4 percentage points published Friday in the Maariv daily.

Wolfsfeld said Sharon's political survival now depends on "whether the story has legs, whether there will be more revelations."

"The end of this script is still wide open," he said.