NewsMay 13, 2005
WASHINGTON -- Exports of soybeans, rice, cotton and corn will rise in 2005, some to record levels, due to drought and other factors in competing nations, the Agriculture Department said Thursday. A decline in global production is spurring U.S. exports, said Keith Collins, the department's chief economist...
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- Exports of soybeans, rice, cotton and corn will rise in 2005, some to record levels, due to drought and other factors in competing nations, the Agriculture Department said Thursday.

A decline in global production is spurring U.S. exports, said Keith Collins, the department's chief economist.

"We're also seeing pretty good growth in demand around the world, and we have large supplies here in the U.S.," Collins said.

The exception is wheat, which many countries have in large supply. Exports of U.S. wheat are projected to drop to 950 million bushels, down 100 million from earlier estimates in the face of competition from Europe, Ukraine and Russia.

U.S. wheat farmers are expected to grow slightly more wheat this year, according to estimates released by department. But farmers are expected to produce less of other major crops. Collins said that's natural after last year's record crops.

"We had record corn, soybean, cotton and rice yields last year, so this is more of a return to trend," Collins said.

Demand for cotton will shrink inside the United States, but exports are expected to grow to a record-setting 14.5 million bales with a sharp increase in demand from China, where textile and apparel production is booming, the department said.

The department forecasts that cotton production will drop 16 percent to 19.5 million bales.

Soybean exports, meanwhile, are projected to reach an estimated 1.1 billion bushels, the highest ever, as Brazil, the major U.S. competitor, struggles with drought.

Soybean production will drop 8 percent to 2.9 billion bushels, the department said. Producers should see prices averaging between $4.70 and $5.70 a bushel, compared with $5.65 last year, the department said.

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The world's consumption of rice is also setting records, and U.S. exports of rice are expected to reach 120 million hundredweight, the second-highest level on record.

Production is projected to drop to 225 million hundredweight, which is 5.8 million hundredweight below last year. Rice prices should stay steady, at $7.20 to $7.50 per hundredweight, the department said.

Corn exports will rise because of less competition from China, Argentina and Brazil, the department said, and U.S. ethanol producers will buy more corn.

Yet prices are forecast at $1.55 to $1.95 a bushel, compared with $2 to $2.10 last year. Domestic use is expected to drop because more nongrain ingredients are going into livestock feed.

Wheat growers are expected to produce slightly more than last year -- 2.2 billion bushels, and wheat prices should drop to $2.55 to $3.05 a bushel, down from last year's $3.39, the department said.

Resumption of exports and higher slaughter weights are forecast to boost beef production, and pork production is also expected to rise. Exports are projected to rise for pork and poultry and go up modestly for beef, the department said.

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On the Net:

Agriculture Department crop reports: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/waobr/view.asp?fwasde-bb%20http ://usda.

mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/field/p

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