Administrators: System of tracking dropouts distorts graduation rate

Missouri public school administrators call it a glitch in the system, and it's costing them graduates.

Under the state's formula for tracking high school graduation rates, a freshman who quits school could be counted as a dropout even if the student goes on to graduate. And under this complex system a student could be a dropout more than once -- even after graduation.

The Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education has heard an earful from some superintendents in the state, some complaining the system is penalizing their districts because of disappearing graduates.

Jim Welker, superintendent of Cape Girardeau School District, has sent a letter to Commissioner of Education Chris L. Nicastro's office seeking clarification on the formula. Administrators discovered what they believe to be discrepancies while examining preliminary annual performance reports, Welker said. With a 2010 graduation rate of 73 percent, Central High School did not meet the graduation requirements under performance report standards. But high school staff, including integrated technology specialists, found the department counted some graduates as dropouts.

Students who dropped out but didn't enroll by the end of the annual September statewide school census "were forever counted as a dropout, even if they went on to graduate," Welker said.

The district still is tracking the data, Welker said, so he could not provide concrete numbers on graduates DESE identified as dropouts. But the inconsistencies could mean the difference of a percentage point or more on the district's graduation rate.

That happened in the school district in Poplar Bluff, Mo.

Superintendent Chris Hon said administrators thought the high school's class of 2010 would record a graduation rate above 80 percent, but the state showed a rate of 78.7 percent. So staff did some digging and found DESE had counted five graduates as dropouts and counted one of those dropouts twice.

'Hard to stomach'

Hon said the findings were disappointing because district officials worked hard chasing the dropouts down and getting them through to their GED certificate.

"For my high school people who are working so hard to improve this, it's hard to stomach this," said Hon, who also sent a letter to the commissioner's office. "I don't mind being held accountable, but when someone graduates I think it's a win for the student and the school district and the whole community."

A DESE official acknowledges the formula counts graduates as dropouts, even more than once.

"All of that is accurate," said Leigh Ann Grant-Engle, assistant commissioner for DESE's Office of Data System Management. "A student can be counted as a dropout more than one time," even if he or she eventually graduates.

Missouri isn't alone. About 20 states calculate graduation rates in the same manner.

The system works this way: A freshman who drops out in spring and re-enrolls by the next September census loses the dropout tag. But if the student doesn't re-enroll by the census date, he forever is counted as a dropout from that freshman class, or cohort. Should he re-enroll after the September census and drop out again and not re-enroll by the next September benchmark, he becomes a second-time dropout -- this time in another cohort.

If it sounds confusing, it is to educators.

Grant-Engle worked through the Poplar Bluff figures with the Southeast Missourian. The state reported the high school had 274 graduates in 2010, with 74 dropouts. But five of those "dropouts" went on to graduate, and one was counted as a dropout twice. So the actual number of dropouts was 68. Computing the new figures, Grant-Engle found Poplar Bluff's graduation rate was 80.1 percent, not 78.7 percent.

Poplar Bluff still would have missed the performance report mark on graduation. While the district's graduation rate was up in 2010, it had been on a downward trend the previous four years, from a high of 86.6 percent from 2006.

The Cape Girardeau School District's graduation rate, too, is far below the state average of 84.3 percent. Central High School's rate, at 80.9 percent in 2006, slipped to a low of 71.6 percent in 2008 before edging up again in the past two years.

Welker said the district isn't making any excuses, that he knows all of Cape Girardeau's public schools have a lot of work to do to raise the graduation rate.

"I think what's important for the school district is we help all students be successful and graduate," Welker said. "It is possible we could accomplish that and still get penalized for that."

Changing next year

But changes are on the way, Grant-Engle said. Beginning next year, states will release reports on students who graduate within four years, Grant-Engle said. The reporting also will track students who graduate in five and six years, making it easier to follow dropouts who go on to graduate. Eventually, that data will drive the calculations for graduation rates.

For now, Poplar Bluff's Hon sees the complicated formula as a flaw in how the state keeps score.

"My people don't understand the graduation rate," he said. "We need to know how they're keeping score, and I would urge all school districts to really keep an eye on that."

mkittle@semissourian.com

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Poplar Bluff, MO