Census: Minorities will be the majority in U.S. by 2043

WASHINGTON -- White people will no longer make up a majority of Americans by 2043, according to new census projections. That's part of a historic shift already reshaping the nation's schools, workforce and electorate -- and redefining long-held notions of race.

The projection, released Wednesday by the Census Bureau, places the tipping point for the white majority a year later than previous estimates, which were made before the impact of the recent economic downturn was fully known.

The United States continues to grow and become more diverse because of higher birthrates among minorities, particularly for Hispanics who entered the U.S. at the height of the immigration boom in the 1990s and early 2000s. Since the mid-2000 housing bust, however, the arrival of millions of immigrants from Mexico and other nations has slowed significantly.

The country's changing demographic mosaic has stark political implications, shown clearly in last month's election that gave President Barack Obama a second term -- in no small part thanks to his support from 78 percent of nonwhite voters.

There are social and economic ramifications, as well. Long-standing fights about civil rights and racial equality are going in new directions, promising to reshape race relations and common notions of being a "minority." White plaintiffs now before the Supreme Court argue that special protections for racial and ethnic minorities dating back to the 1960s may no longer be needed, from affirmative action in college admissions to the Voting Rights Act, designed for states with a history of disenfranchising blacks.

Residential segregation has eased and intermarriage for first- and second-generation Hispanics and Asians is on the rise, blurring racial and ethnic lines and lifting the numbers of people who identify as multiracial.

By 2060, multiracial people are projected to more than triple, from 7.5 million to 26.7 million -- rising even faster and rendering notions of race labels increasingly irrelevant, experts say, if a lingering stigma about being mixed-race can fully fade.

The non-Hispanic white population, now at 197.8 million, is projected to peak at 200 million in 2024, before entering a steady decline in absolute numbers as the massive baby boomer generation enters its golden years. Four years after that, racial and ethnic minorities will become a majority among adults ages 18 to 29 and wield an even greater impact on the "youth vote" in presidential elections.

"The fast-growing demographic today is now the children of immigrants," said Marcelo Suarez-Orozco, a global expert on immigration and dean of UCLA's Graduate School of Education & Information Studies, describing the rate of minority growth in the U.S. as dipping from "overdrive" to "drive." Even with slowing immigration, Suarez-Orozco said, the "die has been cast" for strong minority growth from births.

As recently as 1960, whites made up 85 percent of the U.S., but that share has steadily dropped after a 1965 overhaul of U.S. immigration laws opened doors to waves of immigrants from Mexico, Latin America and Asia. By 2000, the percentage of U.S. whites had slid to 69 percent; it now stands at nearly 64 percent.

"Moving forward, the U.S. will become the first major postindustrial society in the world where minorities will be the majority," Suarez-Orozco said.

The U.S. has nearly 315 million people today. According to the projections released Wednesday, the U.S. population is projected to cross the 400 million mark in 2051, 12 years later than previously projected. The population will hit 420.3 million in 2060.

By then, whites will drop to 43 percent of the U.S. Blacks will make up 14.7 percent, up slightly from today. Hispanics, currently 17 percent of the population, will more than double in absolute number, making up 31 percent, according to the projections. Asians are expected to increase from 5 percent of the population to 8 percent.

Among children, the point at which minorities become the majority is expected to arrive much sooner, by 2018 or so. Last year, racial and ethnic minorities became a majority among babies under age 1 for the first time in U.S. history.

At the same time, the U.S. population as a whole is aging, driven by 78 million mostly white baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964. By 2030, roughly 1 in 5 residents will be 65 and older. Over the next half century, the "oldest old" -- those ages 85 and older -- will more than triple to 18.2 million, reaching 4 percent of the U.S. population.

"The next half century marks key points in continuing trends -- the U.S. will become a plurality nation, where the non-Hispanic white population remains the largest single group, but no group is in the majority," said acting Census Bureau Director Thomas Mesenbourg.

Economically, the rapidly growing nonwhite population gives the U.S. an advantage over other developed nations, including Russia, Japan and France, which are seeing reduced growth or population losses due to declining birthrates and limited immigration. The combined population of more-developed countries other than the U.S. has been projected to decline beginning in 2016, raising the prospect of prolonged budget crises as the number of working-age citizens diminish, pension costs rise and tax revenue fall.

Depending on future rates of immigration, the U.S. population is estimated to continue growing through at least 2060. In a hypothetical situation in which all immigration -- both legal and illegal -- immediately stopped, previous government estimates have suggested the U.S. could lose population beginning in 2048.

"Young families -- many first or second-generation immigrants -- have been the engine of U.S. population growth for several decades," said Mark Mather, associate vice president of the Population Reference Bureau.