The tenure of Saudi Arabia's king

When then-Crown Prince Abdullah became king of Saudi Arabia in 2005, after the death of King Fahd, observers predicted his would be a short reign. At the age of 81, few expected Abdullah to endure more than a handful of years.

Indeed, I shared in that expectation, citing the king's "advanced age" as a challenge for the state in my book, "The History of Saudi Arabia," first published in 2008.

Fortunately for the kingdom and its allies, including the United States, King Abdullah did much more than survive; over the course of a decade, before his death on Friday, he introduced reforms that, while not fundamentally altering the state, nonetheless made Saudi Arabia more stable, open to the world and accommodating of social change.

Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy, but its kings traditionally engage in consensus-building for major decisions. Abdullah institutionalized this process, creating an Allegiance Council to validate monarchical succession, strengthening the Consultative Council, and replacing arch-conservative Muslim clerics on religious and legal bodies.

He introduced local elections, appointed the first female cabinet minister, created the first gender-integrated university, and provided more occupational opportunities for women.

These may seem changes that would only have been revolutionary many decades ago in Western countries, but for Saudi Arabia, a nation in which women are still not allowed to drive automobiles, these were remarkable innovations, overcoming serious resistance from within and without the royal family.

King Abdullah shepherded Saudi Arabia through a transformation of the region, as well. In the context of a U.S. president seemingly recoiling from foreign engagement, Saudi Arabia felt itself forced to assert more authority and expend more resources to address challenges such as the Arab Spring, the Syrian Civil War, instability in Yemen, Iran's nuclear program, and the terror threats posted by al-Qaida and ISIS.

In each case, Abdullah warned the Obama administration that its policies would lead to more instability, increased opportunities for Islamist terror groups and more anti-Americanism.

Feeling ignored, but seeing his predictions proven correct, the previous king nonetheless encouraged U.S. commitments in the region.

His signature proposal from 2002, offering peace to Israel in exchange for a return to the 1967 borders, became the starting point for the first consensus Arab position not committed to the destruction of Israel -- a remarkable change.

Having been previously wrong about the longevity of a Saudi monarch, I make no predictions on the life expectancy of Salman bin Abdul-Aziz, at 79 now King and Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques.

Salman's newly named successor is Crown Prince Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz, at 69 the youngest surviving son of Abdu-Aziz ibn Saud, founding monarch of the kingdom.

A former Saudi Air Force officer and British RAF training college graduate, he served as governor of two provinces and director of the Mukhabarat, Saudi Arabia's main intelligence agency.

Given King Salman's ill health, Muqrin will play a major role in managing government operations until he becomes king in his own right.

The most interesting element of the transition to King Salman, however, is his choice for second in line to the throne.

Since its official founding as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932 the heir to the throne, and the heir to the heir, have always been sons of Abdul-Aziz.

With the aging of this generation, King Salman has named a grandson of Abdul-Aziz, Mohammed bin Naif, to the position of Deputy Crown Prince.

Bypassing hundreds of more senior sons and grandsons of Abdul-Aziz in a society build on deference to elders, King Salman has made an insightful choice with Prince Mohammed bin Naif bin Abdul-Aziz.

The Deputy Crown Prince represents more than a generational shift; his biography reflects a new Saudi Arabia. Mohammed is American-educated, with a BA in Political Science from Lewis & Clark College in Portland, Oregon.

Previous kings have had, at best, some technical schooling or an Islamic education received at court schools. A degree from a liberal arts college is an unusual form of preparation for one of the most powerful men in an absolute monarchy that boasts the Quran as its constitution.

His career in Saudi Arabia has been built on counterterrorism, having served many years as deputy minister of interior; as in many nations, in Saudi Arabia the Interior Ministry is charged with domestic law enforcement.

Since 2012, Mohammed has been Interior Minister, a position he will hold with his new responsibilities.

Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed is not a democrat or human rights champion, and will not be when he assumes the throne.

His record as a tenacious foe of threats to the regime, and his hard line against those hoping to begin an Arab Spring-like uprising in Saudi Arabia should make that clear.

However, if King Salman's two appointments hold, what is a moment of risk in every monarchy -- the change from one ruler to the next -- could overcome a decades-long question: what happens when the last reigning son of Abdul-Aziz dies?

With all three of these men, Saudi Arabia will continue its pace of slow reform, attempting to create a more inclusive and modern society, a stable state in the midst of regional chaos, and an alliance with a United States that over the last half-dozen years has seemed less steady, less connected, and less committed to the necessary partnership forged between Abdul-Aziz and Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the waning days of World War II.

Wayne Bowen received his Ph.D. in history from Northwestern University, and is also an Army veteran.