Melting snow in the upper Mississippi River valley coupled with soil that remains saturated from record flooding last year will likely result in a higher than normal flood risk along the river this year, according to the National Weather Service.

In its newly released “probabilistic hydrologic outlook,” the NWS office in St. Charles, Missouri, says “significant flooding (is) likely along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers” this spring, while “minor flooding” is likely along many streams feeding those rivers north of Cape Girardeau.

“The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers, have experienced well above normal stream flow through most (of) the past winter,” according to the report. “This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to accept future runoff.”

The report cites moist soil conditions along the river basins as a factor making flooding more probable this spring.

“In the wake of last year’s historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and northern plains,” it states. “This will prevent the land areas from absorbing much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.”

According to the flood forecast, this winter’s snowpack and its water equivalent is “much above average” across much of Wisconsin, Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.

“This snowpack is most ominous for the Mississippi River outlook,” the report states. “This is providing well above normal chances for significant flooding along the Mississippi River.”

The report specifically cited the “likely” potential of “major flooding” at several locations along the Mississippi north of Cape Girardeau, including Chester, Illinois, where the river crest last summer was high enough to close the Mississippi River bridge there when floodwaters closed U.S. 51 in Missouri just west of the bridge.

Rainfall amounts in the region this spring will also have a bearing on flood potential, according to the report, which did not specifically refer to the likelihood of flooding in the immediate Cape Girardeau area, including Alexander County, Illinois.

The NWS office in Paducah, Kentucky, issued its first spring flood forecast last week and also predicted a substantial flood potential along the Mississippi River south of Cape Girardeau, as well as the Ohio River, which feeds into the Mississippi south of Cairo, Illinois.

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