MILLENNIUM ESSAY CONTEST ENTRIES; LOOKING FORWARD: PATTERNS IN THE FABRIC OF HISTORY

I take comfort, even inspiration, in the fact that history is cyclical. It's because I am conservative by nature, don't like change and prefer a degree of predictability. I say phooey to those who see no pattern in history. There is a pattern, though some, like Karl Marx, didn't understand it, with tragic consequences. Thus it is the thesis of this essay that history moves in understandable, repetitive cycles or, if you will, circles.

Americans are ultimately optimists at heart. It would be inconceivable for many to believe that the day will come when America will lose its now virtually unchallenged dominance in the world. However, that day will occur in 2476. The significance of the date is that it will have been exactly 2000 years after the collapse of the once proud Roman Empire, or what was left of it.

Up until that time American will remain the rarely challenged leader of the world. However, on March 15, 2161, a U.S. Ides of March will occur, with an assassination of a political leader by none other than a cadre of members of Congress.

As with ancient Rome, a period of internal turmoil, virtual civil war, will follow. Leaders of factions of three groups will struggle for control. Within three decades, one leader will emerge and vanquish the opposition. He will eventually be crowned emperor for life. Throughout this time of trials and tribulations, American will maintain its position of world leadership and even some semblance of representative democracy.

Soon, however, things will change dramatically. The new leader will feel a need to restore order throughout the realm. Programmed-to-kill robots will assist him in establishing dictatorial control, though the legislative and judicial branches will be allowed to remain, powerless, but providing an illusion of the continuance of representative democracy.

American dominance and prosperity will not die. Indeed, it will spread. In fact, a period of unprecedented world peace and prosperity, a Pax Americana (American Peace) paralleling that of the ancient Roman Pax Romana will follow. Some pundits will cautiously and privately (free speech will be no more) express amazement over how almost the entire world economy can prosper with the lessening of freedom. American will become aggressively imperialistic, extending its economic control to direct political control of virtually the entire planet.

However (again the ancient Roman analogy is self-evident), as the years pass, little-noticed signs of decay will render the American Empire vulnerable to subversion from within and assault from the few territories still outside the empire. The eastern half of the empire will succumb to barbarian invaders from what we today know as Belarus, Burundi and Brunei.

The west will hang on until the last emperor, Romulus Augustulus Rustulus, is deposed in 2476 by a combination of forces from outside the empire (Antarcticans and Arcadians) and inside (Arkansans). Civilization will end.

Those familiar with the cyclical theory realize this scenario requires about a half-millennium of a dark age. Anarchy and illiteracy will be the order of the day. The educated few will retreat to virtual reality sites to try to keep a flicker of learning alive.

Toward the end of the next millennium, a renaissance will occur, characterized by a revival of culture, commerce and civility. From that point, a reassertion of nationalism will lead to the recreation of nation states, wars of religion, slowly growing democracy and, well, you get the picture. Here we go again.

Historians will long debate the reasons for the fall of the American Empire. Multivolume works will be written about it. Though there will be no consensus, many will eventually agree that the decline began with the revival of a long dormant forum-become-cult of public opinion, a Tower of Babel-ish institution that many scholars will agree ultimately undermined all societal institutions by creating the impression that there were no longer any lasting truths, and that all opinions were equal. The roots of the cult, eventually evolving into a mainstream religion of the American Empire, were finally traced to a late 20th century midwestern U.S. newspaper, one which had billed itself as conservative, but had, in retrospect, sowed the seeds for radical change that helped create, then, over time, undermine the American Empire. The newspaper's name was never discovered, but the forum-come-religion was found to be known as Speak Out.