Though the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau has dropped to its lowest level since October, authorities say water levels between St. Louis and Cairo should remain near winter depths.

On Thursday, the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau was at 9.9 feet, up slightly from Wednesday's stage of 9.6 feet, but down six feet from Friday's 15.6 foot level.

Thursday's gauge reading was the lowest the river has been here since Oct. 16.

The river here is forecast to rise to 10.1 feet today, 10.5 feet on Saturday and 10.7 feet by Sunday.

The 30-day river forecast issued Wednesday by the National Weather Service at St. Charles projects the river at Cape Girardeau will begin a slow fall from 10.3 feet Jan. 29, down to 8.6 feet on Feb. 5, 7.7 feet on Feb. 12, and 7.0 feet on Feb. 19. The forecast is based on no substantial precipitation occurring north of St. Louis after Jan. 22.

Claude Strauser, chief of the potomology branch of the Corps of Engineer's St. Louis District office, said unusually mild and wet weather in northern states has caused an early snow melt. Normally, the snow would not melt until spring.

Strauser said the mild weather has also prevented prolonged freezes of the tributaries and the main stem of the river north of St. Louis. That means more water is flowing toward St. Louis.

"As long as we have these cold-warm-cold cycles up there that allow the snowfall to melt and run off into the smaller rivers and steams, we do not see any serious navigation problems on the river between St. Louis and Cairo," said Strauser.

"The thing to watch for, however, is a prolonged cold snap, at least a week or more, that would refreeze the rivers up there and reduce the water flow. If that happens, we would be very concerned."

Strauser said with water flow on the Missouri River at normal, winter minimum levels, the only significant water coming into the Mississippi's St. Louis-Cairo corridor right now is from the northern states bordering the Mississippi north of St. Louis.

Strauser said channel navigation conditions on the river between Cape Girardeau and Cairo are in good condition for winter. "The Ohio is still high so that it creates a pooling effect on the lower end of the Mississippi from Cape to Cairo," he said. "On the other hand, if the Ohio drops below the level of the Mississippi from Cape southward, it would cause the Mississippi to fall and the current speed up. That's when we become concerned about that portion of the river."

While conditions on the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo remain good for this time of the year, Strauser said the year-end report for the Missouri River basin runoff was better than last year, but not as good as expected.

"In 1991, the runoff of water into the system of storage reservoirs on the upper Missouri River amounted to 22 million acre feet," Strauser said. "That was somewhat better than the 18 million acre feet that was captured in 1990, but the 1991 total was still well below the long-term average runoff of 25 million acre feet. The amount of snow and rain that fell in November up there was very good, but December was a disappointment to us."

Strauser said this means the Upper Missouri River Basin is now entering its fifth consecutive year of drought conditions. "That will translate into a shortened navigation season on the Missouri River this year. It will also have an impact on the Mississippi River water levels later on," he said.

For now, however, Strauser is pleased to see the wet weather pattern has been sustained since early fall. "The sound of all that rain has been music to my ears," he said.

Just two years ago, in 1989, Strauser and his staff were trying to find enough water to keep the river open between St. Louis and Cairo as daily, all-time record low water levels began to pile up in St. Louis and Cape Girardeau. The combination of record-low water levels and a hard freeze finally forced the Coast Guard to close the 200-mile stretch of the river between St. Louis and Cairo from late December to early January.

Strauser is not disappointed his earlier prediction of serious navigation problems on the river has not come to pass so far this winter. Last summer, Strauser predicted new low-water problems this winter because of the continued drought conditions on the Missouri River, and what should have been the normal freeze-up of the Mississippi River and its tributaries north of St. Louis. "In this case, I love being wrong," he said.