A PRESECRIPTION FOR REPUBLICANS

With the exception of the Contract With America, Republicans have been scratching their heads in confusion and playing defense for most of President Clinton's tenure in office. Their bewilderment has turned into self-flagellation following his acquittal. How could they have spiraled downward so far in such a short period of time?

In just six short years, Clinton has managed systematically to dismantle the dominant coalition it took the Republicans more than a generation to build. Political coalitions on a national scale are always fragile, because they consist of groups loosely joined by certain common purposes in the nature of a collection of concentric circles -- with the issues differentiating them often exceeding those uniting them.

Ever-changing circumstances -- such as voters' perceptions and the presence or absence of economic prosperity, the Cold War and the deficit -- dictate the parameters of these fragile coalitions. Not every Reagan voter, for example, would have favored an across-the-board tax cut if the economy had performed better under the Carter years.

Clinton, being the consummate politician, masterfully capitalized on these factors in attacking the Reagan-Bush coalition. He used the circumstances of a recession during the campaign to transform the people's perception of the economy as the worst in 50 years. He employed the tactic of class warfare to further taint that perception by appealing to the baser instincts of jealousy and greed. It was no longer "How am I doing?" but "Why is the other guy doing better than I am?"

Clinton has also undermined the Republican coalition by co-opting conservative issues such as welfare reform, thereby diluting the perceived distinction between the parties. He is trying to do the same thing with national defense. After downsizing the military to a perilously reduced level of readiness, he shamelessly painted himself as General Patton in his State of the Union speech.

Some conservatives are indicting society's moral decline for Clinton's acquittal and Republican woes in general. They are hardly imagining a moral decline in our culture. But they should conceptually distinguish between the reasons for the acquittal and the causes of their party's problems, even if there is a degree of overlap. Republicans would be well-advised not to make cultural decline a scapegoat for their current state of disarray, because it will result in their failure to take remedial action.

Moreover, Republicans must not opt out of the political process with the naive assumption that they can only effect cultural change outside the system. Regardless of how inexorable society's moral downslide seems to be, we must never forget that their withdrawal will only make conditions worse, because unrestrained government will always possess the capacity for unlimited mischief and evil. The separation of powers and checks and balances built into our constitutional system help to prevent government abuses but will fail if unsupported by a vigilant and participating body politic.

Republicans must not allow themselves the luxury of believing that the marginal constituencies that constituted the silent majority have been swallowed up by an irreversibly debased culture. It is more likely that their coalition has only been temporarily severed by their inability to react to Clinton's divisive demagoguery and deft manipulation of circumstances. The silent majority has not abandoned Republicans. Republicans have let down the silent majority.

The Republican Party still has the best chance of producing positive change within our political system. To do so, however, it must become proactive, not reactive. It must lead, not follow. And it must rebuild its majority coalitions behind solid, enduring principles, not superficial rhetoric such as "compassionate conservatism." These principles must guide the reformation and restructuring of its platform to fit our rapidly changing global circumstances.

For example, it must resurrect national defense as a rallying issue but modify its application to accommodate the replacement of the Cold War's bipolar balance of power with the destabilized world of numerous rogue nations approaching nuclear capability. That means it must make The Strategic Defense Initiative an uncompromising priority.

As to fiscal policy, the party must communicate that our current prosperity is largely traceable to Reagan tax cuts. Further tax cuts must be insulated from class-warfare rhetoric by effectively selling the concept that a rising tide lifts all boats.

Moderate Republicans insist that Republicans' problems are due to their image as a hard-edged band of intolerant moralists. Even if this is partially true, the answer is not to abandon principles but to articulate them in a way that communicates with voters.

In the months ahead the struggle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party will intensify. If the party discards its core beliefs in favor of a strategy of unprincipled appeasement urged by moderates, it will lose more than its peripheral allies. It will sacrifice its base as well -- as we saw in the '98 elections. It is no accident that liberal Democrats are always advising Republicans to become more moderate. They know that it is a formula for disaster. Only if the party's leadership reclaims its roots will it provide the silent majority sufficient reason to return to it.

~David Limbaugh of Cape Girardeau is a columnist for WorldNetDaily, an online newspaper. Beginning in April, Limbaugh's columns will be syndicated by Creators Syndicate, and the Southeast Missourian will publish the columns regularly.