THIS COULD BE BIG YEAR FOR TAXES, SPENDING

It is no wonder that tax cuts are at the top of most lists in Jefferson City as the 1999 session of the Missouri General Assembly begins work. Consider:

-- Tax collections for the state's general revenue fund are expected to set a record -- about $7 billion -- by the time the current fiscal year ends June 30.

-- And the 2000 election season has opened early, very early indeed, thanks in large part to the desire of a two-term governor who has pushed for ways to spend every cent a boom economy can generate to replace a former two-term governor, a fiscal and political conservative, as the state's junior U.S. senator.

In the six years since John Ashcroft's last year as governor, general-revenue tax collections have grown by $2.5 billion a year in Missouri. Just 12 years ago, midway through Ashcroft's first term, the state collected $3.33 billion in general-revenue taxes, or less than half of this year's anticipated record.

In Gov. Mel Carnahan's bid to replace Ashcroft in the U.S. Senate, there will likely be a lot of hoopla about how the current governor saved education, lowered crime and produced needed social services. All of this came at tremendous cost to Missouri's taxpayers. The governor's Outstanding School Act of 1993 alone costs Missourians hundreds of millions of dollars a year. New prison construction and the attendant costs of manning and operating those facilities have added still more millions of dollars to the state's annual expenses. And reducing the welfare rolls under Carnahan has meant spending millions upon millions more for programs that aren't called welfare anymore but serve essentially the same purposes.

Meanwhile, serious tax cuts haven't received much notice as the state's economy benefited from the national economic boom. The state sales tax on groceries was eliminated, but only because Hancock Amendment limits on the growth of state revenue forced cuts to be made somewhere. There has been no effort to look at the state's overall tax structure and address real cuts that would allow Missouri taxpayers -- individuals and businesses -- to fuel a state boom with its own inertia rather than being driven by national economic trends and policies.

Even Democratic leaders in the Legislature agree something needs to be done about taxes, although the Democrats are far less eager to make the sweeping cuts being propose by Republicans -- cuts such as dropping the state sales tax on restaurant and prepared food, increased dependent deductions and tax credits for a portion of county property taxes.

Meanwhile, state revenue continues to exceed Hancock limits, which means more refunds. And a recent federal calculation of the growth in personal income means even higher refunds than the Carnahan administration had anticipated, which means more money will have to go into refund checks rather than even more spending on state programs. It's curious that the budget planners see this as a problem rather than an opportunity.

Last week, the Missouri Supreme Court concluded a lawsuit that had been filed in 1995 by former State Auditor Margaret Kelly seeking to count more money as state revenue, meaning higher refunds. After running into a series of brick walls, Kelly finally won. The high court said casino receipts used to maintain state troopers on riverboats should be counted.

The ruling also was good news for Southeast Missouri State University. Now that the last issue raised by Kelly has been settled, the governor has released $5.6 million for the new polytechnic building.

In the coming months, watch for a lot of goodies to get the governor's support as he continues to drum up support for his Senate bid. Some tax cuts also will likely get Carnahan's blessing.

Guess which be the larger amount.