MISSOURI WATCH: SHOULDN'T WE GIVE JUST A LITTLE THOUGHT TO TOMORROW?

While the current policy/political agenda in Missouri focuses on a number of pragmatic subjects ranging from granting citizens the right to carry concealed weapons to whether the loss limit on non-cruising riverboat casinos should be eliminated, let us venture for the next few paragraphs to a point beyond this realm and focus on issues that are considerably more complex but no less revolutionary.

It is even possible, if not downright impertinent, to suggest that Missouri, not to mention all of its sister states, is ignoring what's about to occur in the next few decades throughout our own nation and the remainder of the civilized/industrialized world. That trend, simply put, is the rearrangement of the economic-social-industrial culture that has been a part of the world since the Industrial Revolution and which is viewed, by most of us, as a permanent fixture in our lives.

To say that we are even now in the midst of a vast and fundamental work transformation would at first glance appear to be an inaccurate statement. Here in our own state, the number of workers employed in the private sector has never been higher, and the last report of the state's job agency revealed that, for the first time in a very long time, double-digit unemployment rates had disappeared. In other words, Missourians have never been busier, nor have as many ever been regularly employed.

If there is a work crisis coming, these figures would certainly seem to contradict and discredit the prediction.

Even more remarkable is the fact this record was achieved despite the state's loss of one of its largest assembly plants (Zenith), the virtual dissembling of one of Missouri's industrial mainstays: shoe manufacturing, and a loss of contracts as the federal government's defense expenditures are downsized.

But something resembling the dim outline of the approaching crisis appears on the horizon when one studies trends in Missouri and across the country over the past quarter of a century. For example, the number of factory workers has declined from 33 percent of the work force to less than 17 percent today, and this loss has occurred since 1965, a relatively short period of time as far as occupational trends go. Then there is the current trend, which has all the appearances of being permanent, toward corporate downsizing, a term that translates into the loss of job slots for millions of workers as entire levels of management are eliminated, to be replaced by various components of the Information Age.

Technology has eliminated the need for human labor in almost every corner of the economy, from industrial plants to agriculture, from banking to communications. As machines do more and more of the work, and as profit-making corporations explore every possibility to reduce costs, the need for a living worker performing certain tasks all but disappears. There is absolutely nothing to indicate these jobs will reappear, as if by magic, in the next decade or the next quarter of a century; indeed, the facts point to an even more rapid disappearance in the future. In case there's still doubt, consider this widely confirmed prediction from several economic research firms: Over the next decade, less than 12 percent of the U.S. work force will hold factory jobs, and by the year 2020, less than two percent of the global work force will have industrial jobs.

A Federal Reserve economist with whom I talked to about this subject recently, voiced many of the same concerns, including the absence of any insightful realization of future expectations by political and governmental officials. He added a few nails to the subject by noting not only the decreasing need for an industrial-sector work force but also the adamant intolerance of the public for expanded governmental jobs, which he said had been decreasing in relation to the national employment total for more than a decade, with no change in the decline foreseeable.

The only discernible use of an increasingly better trained worker is in what some economists call the civil society, which is basically made up of schools and colleges, hospitals, medical research, health-promotion groups, religious and social-service organizations, conservationist groups, cultural and humanities organizations and any activity that attacks socio-economic ills. Many of these groups are organized, funded and sustained by non-profit organizations, which have combined assets of more than $500 billion.

This civil society already contributes more than 6 percent of America's Gross Domestic Product and is responsible for 10.5 percent of all employment in the U.S. As a matter of fact, more of us work in this societal segment than are employed in construction, electronic, transportation and textile and apparel industries.

The appeal of greatly expanding this economic sector is enhanced by the realization that an active, enlarged civil sector would greatly reduce the need for tax-funded welfare programs, health-assistance projects and even the construction of more and more prisons. A society whose needs are being met through a civil sector would be less tolerant of many of the social ills that we have, unfortunately, taken for granted as a permanent part of American society.

It is no doubt asking too much for state legislators and elected officials to turn their attention from speed limits, license designs and weapons carry to more difficult, solution-elusive problems of the future, but it would be refreshing and reassuring to know at least a few man-hours in Jefferson City are being devoted to solutions for the future. There is a long way to go before real answers are available for problems that today appear surreal, but there are enough economists who pay attention to such things issuing enough warnings to make all of us wary of what's ahead for our state and nearly 5.5 million of its residents.

~Jack Stapleton of Kennett is the editor of the Missouri News and Editorial Service.