The Senate is scheduled to vote on the balanced budget amendment today. By last count, no one was sure if it would pass or fail. The final decision will come down to a handful of Democratic senators who supported the amendment in the past but who now face heavy lobbying from President Clinton and others in the Democratic leadership to oppose the measure. One thing is clear, however. The American people will know who to blame if the amendment is defeated.

With all but one Republican Senator on record planning to vote in favor of the legislation, the bill needs the support of 15 Democrats to reach the two-thirds majority required for a constitutional amendment. Although 17 current Democratic senators voted for a nearly identical amendment last year -- and another three backed it in 1986 -- some of these same senators have succumbed to party pressure not to give the Republicans a victory on this important legislative initiative. The argument is that by derailing the balanced budget amendment, Democrats in the Senate can do irreparable harm to the Contract With America and thus undermine the GOP's standing with the American people.

It is a risky gamble for Democratic senators to take. Opinion polls show 80 percent of Americans favor a balanced budget amendment, and the Republican National Committee has already begun airing television commercials in states whose senators have switched their votes.

One of these Democratic senators who favored a balanced budget amendment last year and who plans to vote against it now is Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota. Daschle, who is the Democratic leader in the Senate, explains his change of heart by arguing that a balanced budget amendment would harm senior citizens. He argued the exact opposite last year.

"Requiring the government to operate within its budget does not mean that all important new initiatives or existing programs will have to be abandoned or gutted," said Daschle in 1994. "Nor does it mean we would be forced to renege on our current obligation to America's seniors."

Daschle's flip-flop can be attributed to pressure by partisan Democrats like Ted Kennedy and Christopher Dodd in the Senate, as well as President Clinton. Elected to the office of minority leader by only one vote, Daschle was warned by Dodd and the White House that he could not desert his party on this crucial issue and still maintain cohesive leadership over fellow Democrats. Capitulating to the pressure, Daschle placed partisan politics over economic principle.

The balanced budget amendment is cited by Republicans in Congress as a conservative issue. But in actuality it is more complex than that, and describing the political fault line as resting cleanly between liberal and conservative ideology defies the diverse coalition that has rallied to the cause. One of the strongest backers of the amendment is Sen. Paul Simon of Illinois, a proudly liberal Democrat. He argues that by ending federal borrowing, the balanced budget amendment will reduce interest rates several points. "When you reduce interest rates that much, you create additional resources that are available for programs for the poor. We're not going to have to squeeze programs for the poor," says Simon.

Another liberal who supports the amendment is Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who ran for president in 1992. In the New York Times on Friday, Harkin compared the amendment to the Ten Commandments, calling it "a good code to live by." He said that a constitutional amendment would "force us to have national debates about what our priorities are."In general, however, conservatives are the biggest backers of the amendment. Not only do they warn that it is immoral to continue to pile up debt on America's children and grandchildren -- now approaching $5 trillion -- but they forecast that a balanced budget amendment will force Congress to cut government down to a more workable size."This is a fundamental debate about those who believe more government will solve our problems and those who believe less government, less taxing and less spending will give us more freedom," said Republican Sen. Connie Mack of Florida.President Clinton has done his best to defeat the balanced budget amendment, and the Republicans have done their best to see it through. Its fate now rests in the hands of a half-dozen Democrats who supported it ardently in the past. Today we will find out who wins: politics or principle.Jon K. Rust is a Washington-based writer for the Southeast Missourian.