DONFORTH'S DECISION KICKS OFF SCRAMBLE LEADING TO '94 RACE

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) - A political scramble sure to escalate into open warfare was triggered when U.S. Sen. John Danforth announced his retirement.

If Republicans can avoid repeating their bloody 1992 governor's primary, in which major players pummeled each other into the losers' column, the GOP could hold the seat.

Republican strategists hope to capitalize on anticipated mid-term unhappiness with Democratic administrations in Washington and Jefferson City.

And the GOP would be free of Danforth baggage: seeking a fourth term after pushing early in his career for term limits, and vulnerability to attacks by women's groups for his unwavering sponsorship of Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas amid allegations of sexual harassment.

Prospects are both shining and shaky for a Democratic Party laden with state officials who face little political risk by running at mid-term, and ambitious others willing to sacrifice their jobs.

The Democrats' biggest names, Gov. Mel Carnahan and U.S. House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt, bowed out immediately - further encouraging little-known aspirants.

On the Republican side, attention and frontrunner status immediately belonged to former Gov. John Ashcroft, who left office just three weeks ago.

Ashcroft said Monday after Danforth's announcement: "There may come a time when I would consider this."

But he stressed that it's too soon to publicly commit to the race, and that his personal plans - Ashcroft has a house leased month-to-month in Jefferson City - are up in the air.

Ashcroft lost a race for Republican national chairman about 72 hours before Danforth announced his retirement plans.

"That was a constituency of 165 national committee members who didn't know him that well. John is well-known in Missouri, is popular and could win easily," said a Republican operative who insisted on anonymity.

Tom Fowler, the state GOP chairman from Ashcroft's hometown of Springfield, said the former governor "would be pretty difficult to beat in either a primary or a general election."

"If Ashcroft stumbles, the barracudas will be out in that Republican primary," said a Democratic analyst who asked not to be identified.

Democrats faced a hard winnowing process to elevate a nominee from the speculative list that expanded by the minute on Monday.

"I don't know if it's possible to avoid a primary in the Democratic Party, but we want to do all we can to avoid a bloody one," said Gene Bushmann, the Missouri Democratic chairman.

Most mentioned as a potential Democratic candidate was Lt. Gov. Roger Wilson.

Assets: Wilson just won a statewide race, would be in the midst of a four-year term, is knowledgeable on economic issues as a former state Senate appropriations chairman and renders sharp sound bites.

Question: Is he TOO ambitious? Wilson has said he wants to be governor someday. Wilson also said he would have run against Sen. Christopher Bond, R-Mo., last year if he could have raised the money. And he pondered a bid for state treasurer before angling for lieutenant governor.

Will Wilson run? "I don't know the answer to that," he said Monday.

"But this gets everybody thinking about it. Right now, I'm working on getting my new job straightened out," Wilson said.

Other potential Democratic candidates include:

- U.S. Rep. Alan Wheat of Kansas City, who reportedly was already feeling out possible support on Monday. Wheat, who is black, could expect strong urban support.

- Geri Rothman-Serot, last year's losing nominee against Bond. She said: "We are looking at it, but I'm not ready to say which direction I will head in two years."

- Attorney General Jay Nixon. Like Wilson, he was elected last November, and is noncommittal now about the race. Nixon was the losing Democratic nominee against Danforth in 1988.

- Freshman U.S. Rep. Pat Danner, who beat incumbent Republican Tom Coleman last November. Her son, state Sen. Steve Danner of Kirksville, said he hadn't talked to his mother but acknowledged, "This is a golden opportunity for somebody."

Besides Carnahan, Democrats quickly removing their names from the rumor mill were new Secretary of State Judi Moriarty, House Speaker Bob Griffin of Cameron and St. Louis Mayor Vince Schoemehl, loser to Carnahan in last year's primary for governor. New State Treasurer Bob Holden described his interest as "minimal."

Three well-known Republicans tossed cold water on making the race.

Former Secretary of State Roy Blunt, who lost the 1992 governor's primary, said he has a three-year contract as president of Southwest Baptist University "and it doesn't have a Senate exclusion."

State Auditor Margaret Kelly said she had no plans to run. And freshman U.S. Rep. Jim Talent of St. Louis County said he wanted to focus on his new job, not seek another one.

Versions of Talent's reasoning will eventually be common from other potential candidates.

For them, Monday's fires of ambition stand to be snuffed by chilling challenges - foremost among them raising millions to run and uniting post-primary partisans to win.