IF U.S. BIDS CARL FAREWELL, WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN AIRLINE INDUSTRY?

Great names in the airline industry like Pan American, Eastern and Braniff are gone. Ozark and Republic were merged out of existence. Midway recently succumbed. Not so great names Air West and Continental are about to go over the cliff. TWA, an on-and-off great name, is close to its final flight.

The deregulated airline industry where open competition was supposed to produce a host of new competitive carriers has instead generated an oligopolistic concentration of airline power in the "Big 3": American, United and Delta. The "Big 3" will ultimately overwhelm the industry. More and more there will be single carrier service between cities at single carrier, pay-through-the-nose prices. The irony of airline deregulation is there will be less competition, not more.

TWA is breathing its last gasp. As a national carrier, it is a virtual irrelevancy. It has sold off some of its best overseas routes. It has sold off its best airport facilities, such as those at Washington National. It's been pumped dry of cash.

The only thing that could save it as a separate entity would be an infusion of cash from Carl Icahn's wallet. But Icahn takes money out of companies, as he did earlier with TWA. He doesn't put his own money in sinking ships. Regardless of what happens to TWA, Icahn will have walked away with a bundle of money as Captain Carl, the airline manipulator.

Presumably, USAir is the white knight coming to the rescue a struggling white knight at that. It's two steps from the blood bank. It is awash in red ink and needs its own white knight, British Airways. Morgan Stanley, the investment people, makes this clever little observation: "It's the best of the distressed carriers." That's like the sportswriters who say that "Tommy Lasorda is the best of the worst managers in baseball." Thanks a lot.

A corpse-like TWA married to a "distressed" USAir doesn't make a healthy carrier. Frank Lorenzo found that out with his consolidation of Continental, Frontier, Eastern and People Express. A bundle of bummers put Lorenzo out of business. Sick plus sick equals terminal and I don't mean airline terminal.

St. Louis cheerleaders maintain that USAir will take over Carl Icahn's St. Louis hub, employ the same number of people and operate it just as it is, flying from St. Louis to everywhere in the world. Their presumption is that they can keep it just the way Icahn had it, keep all the jobs intact, pay the same salaries and it will all work out like a marvelous fairy tale. Do you really believe that?

The way airlines compete in today's cruel world is to fire people and dump unprofitable routes. USAir's primary hub is Pittsburgh; Charlotte, N.C. is its secondary hub. The local St. Louis enthusiasts say USAir is, like Horace Greeley, marching west to challenge the "Big 3" and that St. Louis is the focus of USAir's "Westward Ho" battle plan. We'll see about that.

In the meantime, there is the matter of what to do with TWA's pension obligations. Icahn wants to dump them. USAir won't touch them. The government doesn't want to be stuck with them. When corporations go down the tube, pension plans can get hurt. "Screw the pensioners," was one of the bywords of Ivan Boesky.