FORGET FACTS, FOLLOW HUNCHES

One of the reasons elections have become so difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy is because voters are increasingly casting their ballots based on their moods, or sense of well being, rather than the issues injected by political parties and the candidates. A friend who is political editor of Louisiana's leading newspaper believes David Duke won only 39 percent of the vote not because many voters didn't believe in what he was espousing but because the mood of that state on Nov. 16 was more apprehensive than retaliatory.

"You have to understand that Louisiana has been mired in a depression for much longer than any other region in the country, which is why the incumbent ran third in a three-way primary, but many voters envisioned David Duke sitting in the governor's office while our manufacturing and tourist industries were taking a beating," he said. "It was a mood, a hunch, nothing more, because the average Louisiana voter is frightened by the economy. I expect 65 percent of the voters probably thought Duke's rantings against affirmative action and racial quotas were right on target, but this isn't what this governor's race was all about."

Another political expert, this one a Missourian, said it better. "It isn't what's true that's important it's what people believe is true that counts." And Tom Pendergast was politically correct.

David Duke unquestionably inspired a band of dedicated followers who would have supported him had he espoused mandatory minority euthanasia, which was the agenda of one of his favorite political heroes, Adolf Hitler. But dedicated followers do not an electoral plurality make. Followers can be measured in the hundreds, while voters number in the thousands, and there are few figures in history who had sufficient disciples to win elections without bothering with the voters. Ronald Reagan came close, but the only one in this century who actually achieved this was Franklin D. Roosevelt. George Washington probably qualified, but times were different and the nation was more a band of followers rather than a polyandry of political philosophies.

FDR entered the White House when the mood of America was one of sheer fright and desperation. When the new president said the only thing America had to fear was fear itself, he gained a band of followers who would carry him through an unprecedented four elections. Never mind that Roosevelt's programs were generally ineffective in curing America's worst depression. The mood of the country was that as long as this president was in office, there was hope. And just as importantly, without him, there was none. Mood over facts.

Reagan came close, creating a mood that lasted well into his second term, but not to its end. For the most part, Reagan's economic policies, like those of FDR, were mostly ineffective or failures. During Reagan's eight years in the White House, the national debt tripled and deficits were routine and rampant. When he left office, those suffering the most, the great middle class, seemed blithely indifferent to their plight a popular president had caused. Again, mood over facts.

Missouri's recent referendum on higher taxes for improved education is another example. Admittedly complicated, Proposition B presented the average voter the best bargain he could possible hope to receive. While the cost for improved local schools (an economic benefit by itself) and better colleges and universities (still another economic plus) could be measured in mere pennies a week for the average citizen, the truth seemed unimportant. The vast bulk of educational upgrading in Missouri would have been financed by large corporations (who supported the measure with hard cash) and high-income taxpayers (who generally favored the plan). Those who would have benefited the most not only from the extra money from the state capital to local institutions but also from relief of alternative higher local property and personal tax levies defeated it. No fiscal logic here.

Forget the excuse of issues. Only a few hundred voters had any idea of the provisions of the referendum. And forget also the lottery excuse, since this dubious enterprise is barely producing little more than a fraction of the integration payments to St. Louis or Kansas City. Proposition B was not defeated on the basis of the issues, which were stacked in favor of the average, middle-class Missourian, but on the mood of the state and its voters.

And that mood was generated by a series of events: the worst economic stats since the Hoover administration, federal court orders that allocate money from the state's general revenue fund, and a false hunch the public was being conned by politicians. Mood over facts and issues.

As for David Duke, he probably never had a chance after the American Hospital Association said it wouldn't darken Bourbon Street if he were sitting in the executive office up in Baton Rouge. Forget the facts just pay attention to the moods and hunches.