BE OUR GUEST; A YEAR LATER: GORBACHEV HAS BEEN A BUST

Almost a year ago I delivered the speech which is excerpted above. Since, my hope for the peaceful resolution of ethnic strife in the Soviet Union has evaporated. The killing of 23 (or more) Lithuanians and Latvians by Soviet paratroopers and interior ministry forces last week - killings implicitly okayed by president-now-dictator Mikhail Gorbachev - and this week's granting of sweeping new powers to the K.G.B. are tragically only the beginning of what will be the bloody collapse of the Soviet Union.

A year ago, I based my hope for the Soviet future on two main conditions: one, that the Soviet political system was becoming more democratic, and thus more responsive to the needs of the republics; and two, that legitimate steps were being taken in reforming the economy. Events these past two weeks, however, have eliminated virtually any possibility of peaceful change within the U.S.S.R.

The military take-over of government buildings and television stations in Lithuania and Latvia are only the loudest and latest acts of repression. The news media, in general, and television, in particular, are being muzzled again. "Viewpoint," the most popular national news program was taken off the air permanently for broadcasting stories not in accordance with the official line. "Interfax," an independent news agency, was forced out of its offices and temporarily shut down.

Meanwhile, Gorbachev's closest reform-minded advisers have either been dismissed or, disillusioned and frustrated, they have resigned. Boris Yeltsin, Gorbachev's main political rival and the president of the Russian republic, has found himself the target of a fraudulent, mass, letter-writing campaign, among other more insidious schemes.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that necessary changes - towards freedom and democracy - will not come out of the Kremlin. As former Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze warned in his December resignation, "The reformers have gone to ground. Dictatorship is coming."

Until last week there were really only two reformers left near the top of the Soviet government: the new foreign minister Aleksandr Bessmertnykh and the economic adviser Afanasyev. Now there is only Bessmertnykh.

With Afanasyev's departure in protest of economic reform reversals, the domination of domestic policy by hardliners in the Party, military, military industry, and K.G.B. becomes complete not only in action but in name.

Just as disconcerting as the Baltic crackdown is the decision to confiscate 50- and 100-denomination ruble notes, a move which is economically unintelligible in terms of its stated goal of cracking down on illicit black-market profiteers (black marketeers, I assure you, will be the least affected by the change).

The confiscation plan now makes it clear, if it wasn't before, that nobody making decisions in the Kremlin understands economics. Certainly, Gorbachev doesn't. For all his talk about reform and the need for an economic system based on market forces, he has acted time and time again only for more central control. More bureaucracy. And more power into his hands. As one of my Russian friends told me this summer, "We know what has to be done, but the military and the Party will never allow it. And Gorbachev, contrary to what you think, is one of them."

One very important note, and this should be stressed, in terms of foreign policy nothing major has transpired contrary to the new cooperation between the United States and the Soviet Union. And it is unlikely that anything major will happen. The last thing the Soviet Union can afford would be a breakdown in the rapprochement with the U.S. and a return to an arms race, no matter how limited.

All in all, Soviet support of the United States' actions in the Persian Gulf through and in accordance with the United Nations has been remarkable. And it will continue.

But internally, Gorbachev has been a bust. And the blood toll is mounting. Soon it will be too much for us to ignore. Unfortunately, as I said a year ago, there is little that we can do directly - a fact which is even more true as long as we are in the Gulf.

Let us pray then, even as we pray for those in the Persian Gulf, for those men and women struggling for freedom and democracy in Lithuania and Latvia, in Georgia, the Ukraine, and the rest of the Soviet Union.