Kicking 2020 to the curb

In two weeks we'll kiss 2020 farewell.

Like many of you, I prefer not to kiss it, but rather to kick it to the curb. (Have you seen this year's commemorative Christmas ornament of a burning trash dumpster labeled 2020? I want one.)

To say this year has been challenging would be a gross understatement. From political and civil unrest to the human toll and economic impact of a global pandemic, this trip around the sun has had few redeeming qualities. Yes, my wife and I were blessed with the birth of our first granddaughter in February, but beyond that, the year didn't have much going for it from our perspective.

The good news is, 2021 can't get much worse.

While health authorities say COVID-19 will be with us well into the new year, many experts believe the nation's economy will regain much of the strength it lost this year.

"Few of us will miss 2020's volatility in any way, shape or form," commented Scott Colbert, executive vice president, chief economist and director of fixed income management with Commerce Trust Co. in St. Louis. "Yet the outlook as we close out the year is encouraging."

Colbert, writing in Commerce Trust's 2021 outlook report, added, "If someone predicted last spring during the initial stages of the pandemic and massive business shutdowns that we'd likely finish with double digit stock market gains, you might have labeled that person as not in touch with reality."

In the report, Colbert and Joseph Williams, Commerce Trust executive vice president and director of investment strategy, sounded an optimistic tone.

"While the coronavirus will continue to dominate global economic news and political gridlock may be the norm, we still expect the economy and equity markets to rebound, propelled by positive news regarding the promising vaccines and the tail wind of low interest rates and latent stimulus," they said.

Jim Limbaugh, executive vice president at Montgomery Bank, often shares a weekly newsletter with me he receives from First Trust Advisors, an investment advisory firm based in Wheaton, Illinois.

Last week's newsletter was both a retrospective of 2020's economic pitfalls and a hopeful look ahead to 2021.

"The COVID-19 recession is the weirdest we've ever had," the newsletter began. "There's no way anyone could have forecast it."

Despite a "V-shaped" bounce in the third quarter of the year and likely growth of more than 5%, the U.S. economy "is still smaller than it was a year ago," the newsletter continued.

The First Trust newsletter also forecast 3% GDP growth in 2021, but added "any return to complete normalcy," such as getting the nation's unemployment rate below 4%, "will take years" and the pace of the recovery "will depend heavily on renewed shutdowns and the speed of a vaccine rollout."

As for inflation and long term interest rates, we will likely see increases in both, the newsletter predicted, and said we can also expect a recent surge in residential construction — and prices for single-family homes — to continue next year.

"In the next several weeks, news headlines may be filled with dire stories," the newsletter concluded, "but there is light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel, and 2021 is likely to be a much better year than 2020."

Hopefully, the light at the end of the tunnel isn't a freight train.

They're just numbers ... until they aren't

The numbers are easy to find.

A simple Google search for "COVID-19" statistics will tell you that as of late last week, there have been approximately 72 million coronavirus cases worldwide and more than 1.6 million deaths attributed to the virus.

Here in the United States, there have been more than 16 million coronavirus cases since the pandemic began in March. Of those, there have been about 300,000 deaths.

In Missouri, there have been 355,000 cases, more or less, and as of Saturday, more than 4,700 deaths in Missouri had been attributed to coronavirus.

Last Tuesday, the United States recorded 2,821 coronavirus deaths. That was America's single deadliest day. The record only lasted until Wednesday when the daily death toll hit 3,157.

Last Tuesday's death toll ranked fourth by the end of the week after 2,937 deaths were recorded Thursday followed by 2,951 on Friday. (By the time you read this, new records may have been set.)

Last Tuesday, 142 of the nation's 2,821 COVID-19 deaths were in Missouri.

For me, the numbers have been hard to comprehend, but last Tuesday they came into focus because of one Missouri fatality.

Last Tuesday, there was just a single coronavirus death in St. Charles County.

She was my mother-in-law.

Her death reminded me that all of the 300,000 Americans whose deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 have families — sons, daughters, husbands, wives, grandchildren, nieces, nephews ... and in-laws.

Joan Anderson was 86 years old. She had several health issues that likely contributed to her passing, and, at her age, some might say it was simply "her time."

But because of coronavirus, none of Joan's children — neither my wife nor my four brothers-in-law — could be with her during her final hours.

Joan died in the coronavirus unit of Progress West Hospital in O'Fallon, Missouri, with a nurse, clad in personal protective equipment from head to toe, holding her hand.

Joan is one of 300,000 Americans whose deaths have been attributed to coronavirus. Their deaths have left countless holes in the hearts of their friends and family members who were robbed of the opportunity to hold their loved ones' hands and share a human touch.

I completely understand the need to isolate coronavirus patients and, having spent much of my career working in health care, I have nothing but respect and gratitude for doctors, nurses, therapists, technicians, aides and others who deal with this human tragedy day in and day out.

Unfortunately, until there are widespread vaccinations and until an overwhelming majority of Americans understand the need for masking, social distancing and other precautions, there will be many more record-setting days of coronavirus deaths.

And far too many of those deaths will be people who die alone.

At least Joan could hold a nurse's gloved hand.

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