First-round QBs are guaranteed risk

Brett Favre had a great game Sunday. So did Tom Brady and Jeff Garcia.

None was a first-round draft choice, illustrative of what's been happening for a long time in the NFL. Drafting a quarterback in the first round guarantees nothing -- these days, teams have just as good a chance picking one up off the street.

Brady, a sixth-round draft pick last year by the Patriots, was forced into service when Drew Bledsoe was knocked out with a chest injury three weeks ago. On Sunday, Brady was 33-of-54 for 354 yards and two touchdowns in New England's 29-26 overtime win over San Diego, rallying his team from 10 points down in the final eight minutes of regulation.

"Tom Brady came in and played the game of his life," San Diego linebacker Junior Seau said. "We couldn't get them off the field. He played an exceptional game."

Despite that praise, Brady will sit when Bledsoe is healthy.

That means as soon as Bledsoe throws an interception or fumbles, the "Brady! Brady!" chants will start in Foxboro -- second-string quarterbacks are always fan favorites, particularly if they've performed well in clutch situations.

Given Bledsoe's $103 million contract, Brady is more likely to be traded for a draft pick -- as Green Bay did with low-round choices Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks.

That's the pattern. Of the four best quarterbacks in the NFL, only Peyton Manning was a first-round pick, No. 1 overall in 1998.

The others are Favre, a second rounder, plus two guys from the Arena League/NFL Europe (Kurt Warner) and the Canadian Football League (Garcia).

Favre, obtained by the Packers in a 1992 trade, was drafted by the Falcons in 1991, when Dan McGwire and Todd Marinovich were taken in the first round. McGwire has spent what should have been his NFL career watching his brother, Mark, hit home runs, while Marinovich has been in Canada and the Arena League but was done in by personal problems, mostly involving drugs.

So, counting Bledsoe, just nine of the 31 starting quarterbacks in the NFL were first-round draft picks.

The others are Manning, Vinny Testaverde, Tim Couch, Steve McNair, Trent Dilfer, Kerry Collins, Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper. Testaverde, Dilfer and Collins all are with teams other than those that drafted them.

At the other end are first-round disasters like Marinovich, McGwire, Heath Shuler, Jim Druckenmiller, and, of course, Ryan Leaf, who just was signed by Dallas. Plus Jeff George, the No. 1 overall pick in 1990, whose churlishness has gotten him fired by Indianapolis, Atlanta, Oakland, Minnesota and Washington.