Reports indicate recession has begun

WASHINGTON -- Home sales and orders to factories for big-ticket items plunged in September, and the number of Americans drawing unemployment benefits now stands at an 18-year-high -- the strongest evidence to date that the country has entered a recession.

"The bad news just keeps on coming," said Melani Jani, an economist at Salomon Smith Barney in New York. "The economy was already weak before Sept. 11, and these figures show the deterioration has become much more intense."

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that orders to factories for big-ticket durable goods fell for a fourth consecutive month in September, a decline of 8.5 percent that was six times larger than economists expected. It pushed orders for durable goods down to $165.4 billion, the lowest level since August 1996.

Sales of existing homes, one of the economy's few bright spots, fell by 11.7 percent, the biggest one-month drop in six years, the National Association of Realtors reported. The association said the shock of the terrorist attacks caused housing sales, along with a lot of other economic activity, to come to a standstill.

The Labor Department said the number of newly laid-off workers filing for unemployment benefits rose to 504,000 last week, a level usually associated with recessions, while the total number of unemployed collecting benefits rose to an 18-year-high of 3.65 million people, 66 percent above the level of a year ago.

"These numbers leave no doubt that we are in a recession," said Michael Evans, chief economist at American Economics Group, a Washington-based consulting firm.

A final report showed that Americans' wages and benefits rose by 4.1 percent in the 12 months ending in September, compared to a 4.3 percent increase for the previous 12 months. Analysts said that figure will decline even more sharply in coming months as rising layoffs further depress employees' bargaining power.

Wall Street posted sharp declines for most of the day on the bad economic data, but then staged a late session rebound as investors swooped in to grab bargains. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 117.28 points at 9,462.90.

A recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining economic output. The gross domestic product grew at a barely discernible annual rate of 0.3 percent in the April-June quarter.

Many analysts believe when the GDP figure for July-September quarter is released Wednesday, it will show GDP falling at a rate of around 1 percent with the decline expected to accelerate to a 2 percent drop in the current quarter.

Rebound forecast revised

While economists had been expecting a rebound early next year, many said they are revising those forecasts down, in part because of the new uncertainties raised by threats of anthrax and other bioterror attacks.

"Clearly, anything that hits consumer confidence is bad for the economy. The real question is how bad will it be," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's Co. in New York. "With all of the developments on the terrorist front, our crystal balls have gotten cracked."

Wyss said he still believes economic activity will begin to rebound in the first quarter, helped by an aggressive credit easing on the part of the Federal Reserve and sizable tax cuts and government spending increases. The Fed is expected to cut rates for a 10th time this year at its next meeting, Nov. 6.

But Evans said all of this stimulus would likely be overwhelmed for a while by cutbacks in consumer spending, triggered by the higher layoffs, and further drops in business investment.