Ukraine's voters pick between risky change, scandalous status q

KIEV, Ukraine -- Volodymyr Simonov says Ukraine must embrace change to prosper and find its place more than 10 years after its birth as a nation. Volodymyr Khristenko, on the other hand, has witnessed too much change over the past decade, mostly for the worse.

They and millions of Ukrainians will decide Sunday when casting ballots for a new parliament whether to risk something new or stick with the scandal-ridden status quo. Simonov is a candidate with the Against Everyone opposition party. Khristenko likely will vote for the pro-presidential party, For United Ukraine.

The vote for the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada will gauge President Leonid Kuchma's popularity after eight years at Ukraine's helm and lay the groundwork for presidential elections in 2004.

The election campaign has been Ukraine's most spirited yet, with first-ever televised debates, thousands of candidates and boisterous court battles. Reports of campaign violations and violence are rampant. Predictions of vote tampering run high.

Corrupt country

Ukraine under Kuchma has stagnated economically, wallowed in corruption, wavered between Russia and the West and seen power consolidated in the hands of a few well-connected politicians and tycoons. Yet many Ukrainians have grown accustomed to today's stability and the country's first signs of economic growth and see few secure alternatives to Kuchma's rule.

"Things are finally improving. It's not the time to be hasty," Khristenko, a 40-year-old businessman, said.

A Texas-sized nation of 49 million, Ukraine has spent most of its history under someone else's rule, coveted for its fertile steppes and strategic location on Europe's eastern edge.

Since gaining independence as a result of the Soviet collapse in 1991, Ukraine has waffled between allegiance to longtime ruler Russia or to the West, where neighboring Poland and Hungary have joined NATO and are on their way to joining the European Union.

Ukraine's industrial eastern half includes many ethnic Russians and prefers pro-Moscow policies. Its western half aligns itself with Europe. Ukraine's people are poorer than their eastern or western neighbors.

After initially pouring aid into independent Ukraine, the United States and other Western nations increasingly have distanced themselves from Kuchma amid allegations he has ordered opponents silenced and has profited from illegal arms sales.

A victory this weekend by the party of ex-Premier Viktor Yushchenko would encourage Western investors. During his 16 months as prime minister, Yushchenko spurred privatization, balanced the budget and boosted wages.

Soothing Moscow

A strong showing by pro-presidential and Communist parties would soothe Moscow, which is content with a relationship with Kuchma that keeps Ukraine dependent on Russian energy.

Even if pro-reform parties fare well Sunday, it is unclear how easily change would come.

"The real question is what happens after the elections, who will form a majority coalition," said Mykhailo Pohrebinsky, director of Kiev's Institute of Political and Conflict Studies.