Talk of an economic turnaround in Cape Girardeau County may be premature, judging from recent sales tax figures that suggest the local economy hasn't shifted gears.

The county's September sales tax check from the state was down over $15,000 from that month a year ago. The city of Cape Girardeau saw a drop of $35,000 in its sales tax check.

If sales don't pick up speed, the county government and the city of Cape Girardeau could wind up without an increase in sales tax revenue for the first time since 1991.

The poor economic news comes only weeks after local officials suggested the local economy was beginning to rebound because sales tax revenue had increased for two consecutive months.

City and county budget officials aren't ready to dismiss such optimism and caution against reading too much into the September numbers. They point out that the September check reflects sales made in June, July and early August.

Back-to-school sales countywide and the transactions generated by the return of students to Southeast Missouri State University aren't reflected in the checks, they said.

Buyers 'a little more cautious'

Local economist Bruce Domazlicky said retail sales remain slow.

"We will probably see a slight growth in retail sales for the rest of the year," said the Southeast Missouri State University economics professor. "I think consumers are still showing they are willing to spend, but I think they are a little more cautious than they were perhaps a year or two ago."

Businesses pay their sales taxes to the state, which in turn sends checks to counties and cities for the local share of the tax money. Cape Girardeau County has a half-cent sales tax, and the city of Cape Girardeau has a 1-cent general sales tax.

Cape Girardeau County's September check totaled $669,458. The city of Cape Girardeau received a check for $950,797.

For the year, both the city and county are down only slightly.

The city of Cape Girardeau has received $5.77 million through the first nine months of this year, down less than 1 percent from a year ago.

Cape Girardeau County has received $4.01 million. "We are about $18,000 down. That's not bad," said Auditor H. Weldon Macke.

The October check could be a better barometer on whether the economy is on the mend because it should include back-to-school sales, Macke said.

But John Richbourg, the city's finance director, said back-to-school sales may not be much of a pick-me-up.

"Nationwide, back-to-school sales weren't so good," he said.

Auto sales, however, have helped bolster the economy nationwide, Richbourg said. "I think the numbers would be worse if it wasn't for the auto sales."

Shoppers say they're still buying clothes and other merchandise.

Kathy Denton of Cape Girardeau said stores seem to be cutting prices to get shoppers in the door. "I only shop when there are sales on," she said.

Denton said she is spending more, but only because she is expecting her first child in February. She has been shopping for maternity clothes.

Overall, Macke believes there's a lot of shopping left to be done in the next three months, particularly during the Christmas season.

He remains optimistic that the economy will grow this fall, generating a 1 to 2 percent increase in sales tax revenue for the year.

The county received $5.34 million in sales tax revenue in 2001, up 3.59 percent from the previous year.

The growth of the current economy is well off the pace of a year ago, but Macke isn't worried.

"In the scope of $5 million, being down $18,000 is not a big shake," he said.

mbliss@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 123