Future influence of Golden Globes questionable

LOS ANGELES -- When it comes to predicting Oscar winners, the closest thing Hollywood has to a crystal ball is the Golden Globes.

The future is full of question marks for the Globes itself, however, as the Academy Awards move from March to February next year.

The change could lessen the value of the Globes as a consensus-building tool because the Oscar nominations deadline -- now 10 days after the Globes -- may shift ahead of it to early January.

For now, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which has hosted the Globes for 60 years, is in a holding pattern as its organizers wait to see what Oscar planners decide to do.

Dagmar Dunlevy, president of the association, said Tuesday it's too early to speculate about moving the event. She said she expected to discuss the matter with NBC, which broadcasts the ceremony.

"Right now, it's going to be the third week in January as always," she said. "It could be NBC decides we're going to have a look at this and revisit the whole situation. It's always about doing things better and keeping things fresh."

She said any scheduling change would likely be decided in March and dismissed concerns about the Globes losing its influence.

Supporting change

Some show business figures have said they would support a new date for the Globes. Scott Rudin, who received the best dramatic film award Sunday for co-producing "The Hours," said backstage he hoped the Golden Globes would take place earlier to compensate for the Oscar change.

"I think the Golden Globes are one of the two awards that people feel really make a huge difference to a movie," he said. "So I think it would be great if they moved earlier, because it's fantastic there is a big stop along the way for all these movies that are in the Academy race."

As part of a two-year experiment, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences decided to move the 2004 Oscars from late March to Feb. 29 in a bid to shorten the three-month downtime that has become clogged with other movie award shows and intense campaigning.

Academy spokeswoman Leslie Unger said organizers will determine the 2004 nominations schedule after this year's ceremony March 23. "But we will be obliged to have them earlier," she said.

The Golden Globes are selected by the nearly 90 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and their opinions have received increasing attention mainly because of timing and television.

The live NBC broadcast has traditionally exposed winners to a national audience after the Oscar nomination ballots are mailed to Academy voters but before the return deadline.

"Those winners loom large in the minds of Oscar voters as they cast their ballots," said Tom O'Neil, author of the book "Movie Awards" and proprietor of the movie punditry site GoldDerby.com. "I suspect we saw the Oscars played out on the Globes stage."

Good track record

The Foreign Press has a record of choosing Oscar winners, such as "A Beautiful Mind," "Gladiator," and "American Beauty." It fares well with performances, too, having honored Hilary Swank for "Boys Don't Cry" and Jack Nicholson for "As Good as It Gets."

However, the Globes feature separate categories for comedies and dramas -- the Oscars don't -- which double the Globes' chances of selecting winners.

Among those getting an Oscar boost Sunday were Jack Nicholson, who won best dramatic actor for his role as a widowed retiree in "About Schmidt" and Chris Cooper, who took home supporting actor honors for playing a scraggly flower breeder in "Adaptation."

In the musical-comedy category, "Chicago" won best film and Renee Zellweger claimed best actress for playing a jailed would-be starlet, while "The Hours" was named best drama and Nicole Kidman received best dramatic actress for playing mentally ill author Virginia Woolf.